The drought in the central part of the country is estimated

Question

The drought in the central part of the country is estimated to reduce this year's national corn harvest by more than one-third from its normal levels. Such a shortfall would subsequently increase meat and other food pricesby about 17% in one year and 20% in two years. So, either we spend a small amount now to irrigate the largest affected corn fields and avert severe inflation later, or else fail to irrigate now and insure inflation later.

This argument is valid only if

a) other American agricultural areas are also not expected to meet their anticipated corn yields this year.

b) irrigation is the only way that the national corn harvest can be significantly increased.

c) the hear wave and drought will persist through the next two years.

d) irrigation will insure that corn harvests reach normal levels.

e) it is politically feasible for government authorities to spend money irrigating fields at the present time.

Please explain the rationale for you answer choice. Thanks.

Mike

dkverma · Answer

I will go for D. What's OA.

buzzgaurav · Answer

I'm stumped. only B seems right. Can anybody give explaination plz, I'm very weak in CR :oops:

jaynayak · Answer

Will go with C.
The author talks about this years decline and make a assertion that it will increase the prices in the coming two years.
But if the drought conditions are reversed next year then the trend (increase in prices) doesnot hold true.
B also sounds good........

OA please

Beyond700 · Answer

Wow this is too good

Lets break down the argument Drought is there and is affecting the corns harvest by more than 1/3rds its usual... This directly shoots up the inflation .and affects in the coming years as well.. Author's conclusion - spend a small amount to irrigate the the larget affected corn fields which will eventually avert the inflation.. or insure inflation for sure.. . Straight 'B' 'A' - other areas should produce more than their usual to compensate the central territory. 'C' - so what..what is it got to do with the author's conclusion... We are trying to validate author's conclusion here.. 'D' - strengthens, but it is redundant to the conclusion 'E' - we don't know if not the government than the public can also take the responsibility here...

GMATPsycho · Answer

Pls note the question first: "This argument is valid only if....."

This means, the above argument is valid only if the assumption is true.
And the funda here is 'Can we irrigate the corn fields now, to avert inflation in the future?'

Now lets tackle the options,
(A) Firstly there is drought and because of that there is a 33% decrease in the year's corn yield. This option leads to further decrease in the corn yield saying the other American agricultural areas are also not expected to meet their anticipated corn yields. Thus, cannot be the answer.
(B) This option sounds right the fiirst time but is not fully true. The word 'only' infact tends to lead this answer being incorrect.
(C) PR style: This would have been the Joe Bloggs answer. The heat wave doesnt have to persist for two years. The inflation of 17% happens in the first year itself.
(D) This option is very similar to Option (B) but without the word 'only'. This option is true, but I would rate it the second best option in the list.
(E) The only option left out. Now, try looking at the argument from the author's point of view - the reason for him to write this passage. 
This option supports the conclusion, and only if this is true, can the rest of the story progress.

amansingla4 · Answer

I think it should be A...
OA please?

haas_mba07 · Answer

B is my answer. 
D is close but "insure" in the sentence boots it ... it should be "ensure"; insure means something else.

gmatmba · Answer

a) other American agricultural areas are also not expected to meet their anticipated corn yields this year.  Maybe, but I thought we are talking about Australia?!? 

b) irrigation is the only way that the national corn harvest can be significantly increased.  YES argument is only valid if irrigation is the only option 

c) the hear wave and drought will persist through the next two years.  so what ? import corn, dammit 

d) irrigation will insure that corn harvests reach normal levels.  yeah but so can only things like corn imports 

e) it is politically feasible for government authorities to spend money irrigating fields at the present time.  out of scope

paddyboy · Answer

Good point about A. Agree with B. The only problem with D seems to be that it does not state that irrigation is the only solution, while the argument definitely suggests that it is. However, importing corn does not increase harvests, though it may increase the amount of corn in the country. You probably still have higher inflation due to higher rates of imported corn :idea:

But thats a topic for another forum and another discussion :wink:

mrmikec · Answer

The OA is B

Basically, this boils down to logic

The argument is constructed as such: If B -> must be A. Or "to prevent drought" - > "must irrigate." Thus B strengthens this but saying it is the only way to prevent drought/inflation. I orginally chose D. But D is "less correct" than B because, as gmatmba stated, it only says that irrigation will work. There are other ways to prevent drought, i.e. imports, time machine, etc.

Thus D says If B -> then A is sufficient
but C says If B -> must be A. A is both necessary and sufficient. (the better option)

I want to thank HongHu for the logic post. If you are having trouble with CR, I would suggest to really go over it and learn it. I spent two lunch hours debating with my co-workers about his posts. (One was a philosphy major) It really helped clear CRs up for me.

The drought in the central part of the country is estimated

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