The graph shows how customers previously stated roast preferences

Question

https://gmatclub.com/forum/download/file.php?id=89597 The graph shows how customers’ previously stated roast preferences relate to their next coffee purchase. Each line represents one customer group and shows, for each stated roast preference, the probability that the customer’s next purchase matched that preference. For each customer group, less than 5% of customers had previously stated a preference for a very dark roast. Select from each drop-down menu the option that creates the most accurate statement based on the information provided. GRAPH_1_PLACEHOLDER are least likely overall to purchase a roast that matches their previously stated preference. The probability of purchasing a roast that matches the previously stated preference varies the least across roast preferences for GRAPH_2_PLACEHOLDER . GMAT-Club-Forum-bzendztk.png

Bunuel · Accepted Answer

https://gmatclub.com/forum/download/file.php?id=89597

The graph shows how customers’ previously stated roast preferences relate to their next coffee purchase. Each line represents one customer group and shows, for each stated roast preference, the probability that the customer’s next purchase matched that preference. For each customer group, less than 5% of customers had previously stated a preference for a very dark roast.

Select from each drop-down menu the option that creates the most accurate statement based on the information provided.

GRAPH_1_PLACEHOLDER  are least likely overall to purchase a roast that matches their previously stated preference.

The probability of purchasing a roast that matches the previously stated preference varies the least across roast preferences for  GRAPH_2_PLACEHOLDER .

Official Solution:

Drop-down 1:

Across the first five roast-preference levels,  Occasional buyers  have the lowest probability of purchasing a roast that matches their previously stated preference.

At “Very dark,”  Subscription members  have the lowest probability. However, less than 5% of customers in each group had previously stated a preference for a very dark roast, so that point applies to only a very small share of customers.

Therefore, overall,  Occasional buyers  are least likely to purchase according to their previously stated preference.

Drop-down 2:

The line for  New customers  stays within a single narrow horizontal band, roughly from 0.60 to 0.65, across all six roast preferences.

Each of the other three groups varies much more. In fact, each of their lines spans at least three 0.10 intervals on the vertical axis.

Therefore, the probability varies the least across roast preferences for  New customers .

Correct answer:  
Drop-down 1: "Occasional buyers"
Drop-down 2: "New customers"

muskang2000 · Answer

Occasional Buyers and New Customers. Former is tricky because interpretation of this line "For each customer group, less than 5% of customers had previously stated a preference for a very dark roast" can be easily missed

kaustubhkohli12 · Answer

Occasional Buyer answer for the first choice and New Customer for the second one.

agil31 · Answer

Could you please explain how that makes a difference?

muskang2000 · Answer

Hey that's because without that line, my answer would be "subscription". See:

Subscription members have  0.08  for "Very dark." But we're told: For each group,  less than 5%  had stated "Very dark." So that 0.08 applies to a tiny fraction of subscription members. It shouldn't dominate their overall likelihood

agil31 · Answer

Even without that information, doesn't the general visual representation that meets the eye give the correct answer?

muskang2000 · Answer

I agree. Visually, Occasional buyers do appear least likely, but “overall” requires considering the weighting of each preference. The <5% information is what lets us definitively rule out the low 0.08 for Subscription members driving their overall rate down. Or maybe I read too much into it

agil31

Even without that information, doesn't the general visual representation that meets the eye give the correct answer?

The graph shows how customers previously stated roast preferences

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