Bunuel
A distribution center tested 10 automated barcode scanners. Each scanner repeatedly attempted to read the same type of damaged barcode. For each scanner, the probability of a correct reading was the same on every attempt, and the outcomes of the attempts were independent. The table shows the probability that each scanner will read the barcode correctly on a single attempt and the minimum required probability of obtaining at least one correct reading.
| Scanner | Probability of correct reading on one attempt | Required probability of at least one correct reading |
|---|
| 1 | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| 2 | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| 3 | 0.50 | 0.95 |
| 4 | 0.35 | 0.85 |
| 5 | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| 6 | 0.20 | 0.75 |
| 7 | 0.40 | 0.88 |
| 8 | 0.45 | 0.90 |
| 9 | 0.28 | 0.82 |
| 10 | 0.32 | 0.92 |
For each of the following scanners, select
At most 5 attempts if the minimum number of attempts needed to achieve at least the required probability shown in the table is at most 5. Otherwise, select
More than 5 attempts.
Official Solution:For n independent attempts, each with probability p of a correct reading, the probability of at least one correct reading is:
1 - (1 - p)^n
Since we only need to determine whether the minimum number of attempts is at most 5 or more than 5, we can simply check the probability after 5 attempts:
- If 5 attempts achieve the required probability, the answer is At most 5 attempts.
- If 5 attempts do not achieve the required probability, the answer is More than 5 attempts.
• Scanner 2For Scanner 2, the probability of a correct reading on one attempt is 0.30, and the required probability is 0.80.
With 5 attempts:
1 - 0.70^5 ≈ 0.832
Since 0.832 is greater than 0.80, 5 attempts are sufficient.
Answer:
At most 5 attempts.
• Scanner 6For Scanner 6, the probability of a correct reading on one attempt is 0.20, and the required probability is 0.75.
With 5 attempts:
1 - 0.80^5 ≈ 0.672
Since 0.672 is less than 0.75, 5 attempts are not sufficient.
Answer:
More than 5 attempts.
• Scanner 8For Scanner 8, the probability of a correct reading on one attempt is 0.45, and the required probability is 0.90.
With 5 attempts:
1 - 0.55^5 ≈ 0.950
Since 0.950 is greater than 0.90, 5 attempts are sufficient.
Answer:
At most 5 attempts.