Last year, a certain orchard produced a record number of oranges. Will

Question

Last year, a certain orchard produced a record number of oranges. Will this year set another record? Consider that each orange is either produced by a current tree or by the growth of a new tree. For existing trees this year, oranges have been growing at a rate much lower than for those same trees last year. And, there is no evidence that the number of new orange trees this year will be higher than the number of new trees last year.  It is likely that the new trees this year will not produce more oranges than last year’s new trees.  The conclusion is obvious.  The number of oranges produced this year will not surpass last year’s record.     1 
 In the argument given, the two highlighted portions play which of the following roles?

A. The first is an objection that the argument refutes; the second is the primary conclusion of the argument.
B. The first is a hypothesis that is used to support the position that the argument opposes; the second is a claim used to support the argument’s main conclusion.
C. The first is a hypothesis that, if true, would support the argument’s primary conclusion; the second is that primary conclusion.
D. The first is a hypothesis that, if true, would support the argument’s primary conclusion; the second is a conclusion drawn to support that primary conclusion.
E. The first is an objection that the argument refutes; the second is the main conclusion of the argument.

Sajjad1994 · Answer

Official Explanation

The first highlighted portion is a hypothesis: this year is not over. If that hypothesis is correct, that this year ’s trees will not produce more oranges than last year ’s new trees, then the hypothesis supports the argument’s conclusion. That conclusion is the second highlighted sentence, which postulates that this year ’s orange crop will not break last year ’s record. 
 
  Answer: C

Last year, a certain orchard produced a record number of oranges. Will

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