I suggest adding ultraelites to portfolios not because they are necessarily high probability events but because they are high return events. In this sense they are roughly analogous to early stage investments. I concede I overuse this phrase, but if you fail to apply you guarantee that you will not be admitted.
I like the diversity of your portfolio- a range of elites and transelites in the US as well as some top cluster European schools. I would normally suggest some US NearElites but I realize that they might not be consistent with your goals outside the US. Considering your regional interests, you might want to look at some additional European schools.
A final word- It is useful to consider the importance of demographics in admissions. However, some people take this idea too far. If you are a top candidate with valuable and carefully highlighed achievements you remain a top candidate.