rhyme wrote:
This is going to sound super wierd but.... I find that really interesting. Can you tell us more about the job, what it was like? I'm actually becoming more and more interested in joining one of these policy think tanks, and energy is an area of interest.
Well, I can describe a couple typical projects I worked on....
We mainly worked in the area of demand response, which are programs set up to help with reliability....basically programs are set in which customers sign up to reduce load when called upon by the ISO (Independent Systems Operator, they run the electric grid in a lot of the US where the markets are deregulated), and the customers get paid to do so. So, for example, in New York (where I worked), if it is a really hot day and the load is approaching capacity, they might invoke one of these programs (there are a few different types with different rules for different customer segments). They might provide a 600MW load reduction in an hour and help "prevent" a brownout or blackout. They are paid the higher of $500/MW or the hourly price.
So anyway, our firm was hired to evaluate these programs in various markets around the country. The first step was to re-create the supply curve, which we did using a fairly complex econometric model with a bunch of shifter variables - price was the dependent variable, the independent variables were things like load, weather, transmission constraints, etc...
By estimating the supply curve, we could then create a program to simulate what the hourly price WOULD have been if not for the load reduction from these programs. Say the actual price was $600/MWh, our model would show that if the program hadn't been activated, the price would have been $927/MWh. This price difference was then used to calculate a variety of market and welfare savings.
A lot of ISO's also have Day-Ahead bidding programs (most markets have a Day-Ahead market and a Spot/Real-Time market) where customers can bid in load reductions at certain price thresholds, and then reduce in Real-Time. It's basically a way to arbitrage the difference in the market prices and help reduce price volatility. Our firm was also responsible for evaluating the effectiveness of these programs.
Another common project was to create simulations to estimate the effects of customers switching from one electric rate to another. For example we worked with the State of Massachussetts because they were thinking of making some of their largest commercial/industrial customers switch to Real-Time Pricing (where they pay 24 hourly prices, which is exactly how the Wholesale market works....unfortunately most retail rates are not reflective of this). Not only do we simulate the change in rates, but we use elasticity estimates to calculate how the customers would adjust usage on the new rates, which then affects the market price.
So that's kind of some of the stuff we did in a nutshell.