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goaltop30mba
hmm.. interesting

"A recent report determined that although only three percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors, thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them."


what do you think should be the conclusion of the sentence that I have mentioned above? Brian123

goaltop30mba, I would just say that a greater percentage of equipped drivers were ticketed as compared to the percentage of non-equipped drivers. I can't really comment on the likelihood of over speeding here as I don't know if there is a bias in the actual ticketing process once the over speeding driver has been caught. If you were to tell me that there is no such bias and all the over speeding drivers have been caught and ticketed, I'd say the equipped drivers have a greater likelihood of over speeding compared to the non-equipped drivers.
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goaltop30mba
hi VeritasKarishma

I do understand the explanation that you have provided, but I still have a doubt.

The data in the argument shows that "people living in low income areas are more likely to get sentenced for committing a crime than are people living in not-low income areas". Getting to this observation is possible when we assume that the ones who got sentenced did commit the crimes and got prosecuted for those crimes.

The author concludes that "people living in low income areas are more likely to commit a crime than are people living in not-low income areas".

Now i do see that there clearly is a gap between what the data is showing and what the author is saying ie. there is definitely some connection between "committing a crime" and "getting sentenced for it". I also agree that option C mentions this missing connection, BUT isn't option C going against what the data is saying? As mentioned above the data says that one group is more likely to get sentenced for committing a crime than is the group, but, given option C as the answer, author is assuming the opposite of what the data is saying in order to get to his conclusion? How can an option that is going against what the data is showing (what the the data is showing is clearly a fact ie something that we cannot change) be the answer?

regards,

Option (C) is not against the data given.

15% people live in low income areas (say out of 1000 people, 150 live in Low income areas).
20% of all criminals sentenced lived in low income areas (There are 100 criminals sentenced, and say 20 come out of low income areas) .
In low income areas, when one commits a crime, probability of sentencing is the same (say 50% of all those who commit crimes get sentenced).
(So 40 of the 150 people in low income areas committed crimes and 160 of the 850 people in high income areas committed crimes, That is why 20 low income criminals got sentenced and 80 high income criminals got sentenced)

40/150 = 27% of low income grp commit crimes
160/850 = 19% of high income grp commit crimes

That more people living in low income areas commit crimes. That is why they make up 20% of criminals though they make up only 15% of population.

Now think of the reverse. What if low income group people had a higher conviction rate?
Say 80% of criminals got sentenced if they belonged to low income group (makes sense, right? They may not have resources to pay a good lawyer etc)
Then can we infer that low income groups commit more crimes? No. Perhaps the percentage of criminals is the same but higher income group goes scot free while low income gets sentenced and hence the low income makes greater percentage of criminals sentenced.

That is why (C) is the correct assumption.
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