bhushangiri wrote:
I get 357/800..
the only way the relay fails is if (2&3 fail) or (4&5 fail) or (2,3,4&5 all fail).
plug in the appropriate proabilities and signs...
(3/8*3/10) + (3/4*2/5) + (3/8*3/10*3/4*2/5)
Am i missing something ?
One small thing, yes. When you work out the probability that 2+3 fail, you're also
including the possibility that 2+3+4+5 all fail. When you work out the probability that 4+5 fail, you're also including the possibility that 2+3+4+5 fail. So when you write the first two terms in your sum above: (3/8*3/10) + (3/4*2/5)
you've actually counted
twice the possibility that 2+3+4+5 all fail. You actually want to subtract the last term, not add it, to correct for the double-counting:
(3/8*3/10) + (3/4*2/5) - (3/8*3/10*3/4*2/5)
It's really a Venn diagram situation, where you need to take out the overlap between two groups.
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