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At the end of 1997 several nations stated that their oil reserves had

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At the end of 1997 several nations stated that their oil reserves had [#permalink]

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At the end of 1997 several nations stated that their oil reserves had not changed since the end of 1996. But oil reserves gradually drop as old oil fields are drained and rise suddenly as new oil fields are discovered. Therefore, oil reserves are unlikely to remain unchanged from one year to the next. So most of the nations stating that their oil reserves were unchanged are probably incorrect.

Which one of the following is an assumption the argument requires?

(A) For any nation with oil reserves, it is more likely that the nation was mistaken in its statements about changes in its oil reserves than that the nation's oil reserves remained unchanged.

(B) It is likely that in 1997, in most of the nations that stated that their oil reserves were unchanged, old oil fields were drained or new oil fields were discovered, or both.

(C) During the course of 1997, the oil reserves of at least one nation not only gradually dropped but also rose suddenly.

(D) If a nation incorrectly stated at the end of 1997 that its oil reserves bad not changed since the end of 1996, then during 1997 that nation drained its old oil fields and discovered new ones.

(E) If a nation 's oil reserves change from one year to the next, then that nation is obligated to report the change correctly.

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Last edited by Masshole on 30 Aug 2017, 13:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: At the end of 1997 several nations stated that their oil reserves had [#permalink]

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New post 30 Aug 2017, 08:59
Please could any one explain me on why the option B is right. I was struck between B and D but chose D.

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Re: At the end of 1997 several nations stated that their oil reserves had [#permalink]

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New post 02 Sep 2017, 00:50
Vinotharyaa wrote:
Please could any one explain me on why the option B is right. I was struck between B and D but chose D.

Quote:
(D) If a nation incorrectly stated at the end of 1997 that its oil reserves had not changed since the end of 1996, then during 1997 that nation drained its old oil fields and discovered new ones.

The author's argument does not RELY on this assumption. For example, some of those countries may have drained oil fields WITHOUT discovering new ones, decreasing their oil reserves. If those countries stated that their oil reserves had not changed since the end of 1996, they would still be incorrect.

In other words, those countries could still be incorrect even if choice (D) is not true.
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Re: At the end of 1997 several nations stated that their oil reserves had [#permalink]

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New post 03 Sep 2017, 06:08
Hello Guys,

I didnt get how B is the answer, can anyone explain?

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Re: At the end of 1997 several nations stated that their oil reserves had [#permalink]

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New post 20 Sep 2017, 20:54
pikolo2510 wrote:
Hello Guys,

I didnt get how B is the answer, can anyone explain?

The passage says that oil reserves gradually drop as old oil fields are drained and rise suddenly as new oil fields are discovered. If oil fields are being drained and new oil fields are being discovered, oil reserves would only remain the same if the amount of oil drained was EXACTLY equal to the amount of new oil discovered. The author suggests that this would be an unlikely coincidence. Thus, according to the argument, if a nation states that its oil fields have not changed over the course of year, it is likely that the nation is making an incorrect statement.

But what if over the course of a year, NO oil fields are drained and NO new oil fields are discovered? In that cause, the oil reserves WOULD remain the same. According to the author, the likely explanation for no change in oil reserves is incorrect reporting. However, another explanation is that no oil fields were drained or discovered. Thus, in order for the author's argument to hold, we must assume that the latter explanation is not likely.

Quote:
(B) It is likely that in 1997, in most of the nations that stated that their oil reserves were unchanged, old oil fields were drained or new oil fields were discovered, or both.

Choice (B) represents this required assumption.

Quote:
(D) If a nation incorrectly stated at the end of 1997 that its oil reserves had not changed since the end of 1996, then during 1997 that nation drained its old oil fields and discovered new ones.

As for (D), as stated below, the author's argument does not RELY on this assumption. For example, some of those countries may have drained oil fields WITHOUT discovering new ones, decreasing their oil reserves. If those countries stated that their oil reserves had not changed since the end of 1996, they would still be incorrect.

In other words, those countries could still be incorrect even if choice (D) is not true.
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Re: At the end of 1997 several nations stated that their oil reserves had [#permalink]

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New post 20 Sep 2017, 22:40
GMATNinja wrote:
pikolo2510 wrote:
Hello Guys,

I didnt get how B is the answer, can anyone explain?

The passage says that oil reserves gradually drop as old oil fields are drained and rise suddenly as new oil fields are discovered. If oil fields are being drained and new oil fields are being discovered, oil reserves would only remain the same if the amount of oil drained was EXACTLY equal to the amount of new oil discovered. The author suggests that this would be an unlikely coincidence. Thus, according to the argument, if a nation states that its oil fields have not changed over the course of year, it is likely that the nation is making an incorrect statement.

But what if over the course of a year, NO oil fields are drained and NO new oil fields are discovered? In that cause, the oil reserves WOULD remain the same. According to the author, the likely explanation for no change in oil reserves is incorrect reporting. However, another explanation is that no oil fields were drained or discovered. Thus, in order for the author's argument to hold, we must assume that the latter explanation is not likely.

Quote:
(B) It is likely that in 1997, in most of the nations that stated that their oil reserves were unchanged, old oil fields were drained or new oil fields were discovered, or both.

Choice (B) represents this required assumption.

Quote:
(D) If a nation incorrectly stated at the end of 1997 that its oil reserves had not changed since the end of 1996, then during 1997 that nation drained its old oil fields and discovered new ones.

As for (D), as stated below, the author's argument does not RELY on this assumption. For example, some of those countries may have drained oil fields WITHOUT discovering new ones, decreasing their oil reserves. If those countries stated that their oil reserves had not changed since the end of 1996, they would still be incorrect.

In other words, those countries could still be incorrect even if choice (D) is not true.



Dear GMATNinja,

I get your explanation to some extent but not totally.
First of all the author says " the fact that the oil reserves remain changed is incorrect ".

What is the author assuming for this to be true?

Assumptions .

There was only drainage but no discoveries - thus change is inevitable ( "old oil fields were drained ")
There was only discoveries of reserves but no drainage.- thus change is inevitable (" new oil fields were discovered")
There was both drainage and discoveries - how does this signify that change was inevitable ("both")

Edit :
Just got it I think. Although there was both drainage and discoveries , the rate of both was not equal hence change is inevitable.
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Re: At the end of 1997 several nations stated that their oil reserves had   [#permalink] 20 Sep 2017, 22:40
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