pikolo2510 wrote:
Hello Guys,
I didnt get how B is the answer, can anyone explain?
The passage says that oil reserves gradually drop as old oil fields are drained and rise suddenly as new oil fields are discovered. If oil fields are being drained and new oil fields are being discovered, oil reserves would only remain the same if the amount of oil drained was EXACTLY equal to the amount of new oil discovered. The author suggests that this would be an unlikely coincidence. Thus, according to the argument, if a nation states that its oil fields have not changed over the course of year, it is likely that the nation is making an incorrect statement.
But what if over the course of a year, NO oil fields are drained and NO new oil fields are discovered? In that cause, the oil reserves WOULD remain the same. According to the author, the likely explanation for no change in oil reserves is incorrect reporting. However, another explanation is that no oil fields were drained or discovered. Thus, in order for the author's argument to hold, we must assume that the latter explanation is not likely.
Quote:
(B) It is likely that in 1997, in most of the nations that stated that their oil reserves were unchanged, old oil fields were drained or new oil fields were discovered, or both.
Choice (B) represents this required assumption.
Quote:
(D) If a nation incorrectly stated at the end of 1997 that its oil reserves had not changed since the end of 1996, then during 1997 that nation drained its old oil fields and discovered new ones.
As for (D), as stated below, the author's argument does not RELY on this assumption. For example, some of those countries may have drained oil fields WITHOUT discovering new ones, decreasing their oil reserves. If those countries stated that their oil reserves had not changed since the end of 1996, they would still be incorrect.
In other words, those countries could still be incorrect even if choice (D) is not true.