Sajjad1994Requesting for reviewing the Essay on the basis of undermentioned prompt :-
QUESTIONThe following appeared in a trade publication for the insurance industry:
“Each generation of Americans has lived longer than the ones preceding it, as the national life expectancy has approached 80 years old in recent years. The progress of medical technology shows no sign of abating. Therefore, we can confidently predict that most children born in America in the next decade will live past the age of ninety.”Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.ESSAYThe argument under reference, an extract from trade publication for the insurance industry, highlights a rosy prediction for continued increase in the life expectancy in future on the basis of past trends, primarily bolstered by sole premise relating to recent advances in medical technology. The author's argument, at an initial glance, seems logically convincing; however, on a deeper analysis, it comes to the fore that the argument suffers from reliance on doubtful assumptions, as also it lacks adequate supporting evidence. Besides the lack of supporting evidence, the argument's reasoning has several critical flaws, which have been described in the succeeding paragraphs.
Firstly, the argument relies heavily on the assumption that medical technology will continue to make significant advances in future also. Such a prediction can be justified only on the basis of data related to future research areas and the focus on specific life threatening diseases. The author has not presented the relevant data prior to making a favorable prediction regarding future advances in medical technology.
Secondly, the author has extended the argument further by highlighting that the children will likely live past the age of ninety. Such a prediction seems deficient considering the fact that the author has not provided the niche medical research pertaining to the children. The argument needs to provide supporting evidence in the form of existing mortality rates of children, particularly in the childhood and teen years owing to igreater vulnerability to children at such ages.
Thirdly, the argument has also not included the futuristic analyses, particularly related to other geographic, regional and environmental factors , which may significantly affect the life expectancy in future. To this end, the author needs to highlight adequate data and trends pertaining to the past few decades.
Lastly, the argument's focus has been primarily on the advances in medical technology and consequent increase in the life expectancy. While the medical progress may be important, there can be other factors like the lifestyle changes effected by the population at large contributing to to such rise in life expectancy. The author needs to provide supporting evidence in favor of his argument that increase in life expectancy has been primarily driven through medical advances, and has not been driven by lifestyle changes adopted by the general public.
Towards improving the logical consistency in his argument, the author needs to support his assertion through adequate supporting evidence in the form of medical research reports, which focus on lifestyle diseases, and the trendlines highlighting correlation between medical advances and the life expectancy figures.
In essence, the author's argument, in its existing state, is logically inconsistent because of doubtful assumptions and lack of adequate supporting evidence. In order to strengthen the assertion regarding continued increase in life expectancy in future also, the author needs to justify his argument through focused treatment of the subject, duly encompassing supporting analyses related to medicine, health, and environment.