Bunuel
Exit polls, conducted by an independent organization among voters at five polling locations during a recent election, suggested that the incumbent mayor—a Democrat—was going to lose the election by a wide margin. But, in fact, by the time the final results were tabulated, the incumbent had won the election by a narrow margin.
Which of the following, if true, would explain the apparent contradiction in the results of the exit polls?
(A) The people chosen at random to be polled by the independent organization happened to be Democrats.
(B) The exit poll locations chosen by the independent organization were in predominantly Republican districts.
(C) The exit polls were conducted during the afternoon, when most of the districts’ younger voters, who did not support the incumbent mayor, were at work.
(D) The incumbent mayor ran on a platform that promised to lower taxes if elected.
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(E) An earlier poll, conducted the week before the election, had predicted that the incumbent mayor would win.
An Exit poll was conducted by an independent organisation in 5 different locations. The outcome of the exit poll - incumbent mayor ( a Democrat) might lose the election by a wide margin. But, the actual results were different , as the incumbent mayor won the election by a narrow margin.
we need to resolve the paradox :
(A) The people chosen at random to be polled by the independent organization happened to be Democrats.
Option A is wrong because, if the people chosen at random were Democrats, then the outcome of Exit poll could have been favourable to the incumbent mayor of democrats party. But, the question explains the exit poll results were against the democrats.
(B) The exit poll locations chosen by the independent organization were in predominantly Republican districts.Option B is correct - as it explains the reason why the exit polls result and actual poll results were different. It states, that the contradiction is mainly due to the choice of location for exit polls, which were predominated by Republican voters. But, the general pulse of the voting population is balanced and slightly skewed to the Democrats. Thus, helping the incumbent mayor to win the elections.
(C) The exit polls were conducted during the afternoon, when most of the districts’ younger voters, who did not support the incumbent mayor, were at work.
Option C is wrong , as it fails to consider the fact that voting population includes all age groups beyond a threshold age limit. But, the option confines itself to the young voting population. Moreover, the timing of exit polls would be a factor, but cannot be the only factor.
(D) The incumbent mayor ran on a platform that promised to lower taxes if elected.
Option D speaks about the future promise made by incumbent mayor , that have acted as a catalyst in mayor wining the election by lower margin. But, this speaks about the campaign strategy put forth by the democrats, which may be implemented or may not. If that’s the case, then during exit polls, the campaign about lower taxes might have been in hands of the selected lot, who voted against the incumbent mayor. This contradicts the notion of campaign aiding the winning chances.
(E) An earlier poll, conducted the week before the election, had predicted that the incumbent mayor would win.
Option E speaks about another exit poll results, which is different. But, this fails to explain why there was a contradiction between the exit polls and final results at the first instance. Hence, wrong.
Option B