OFFICIAL EXPLANATION
Flights across Continent X have always been quite expensive. Now, due to a rise in the price of oil, and, subsequently, the price of fuel, flights across Continent X are expected to become even more expensive. Fortunately for budget travellers,
the growing competition in the market of intra-continental flights may prevent prices from rising dramatically.
In the above argument, the two portions in boldface play which of the following roles?
A. The first is evidence describing a relationship of cause and effect; the second is the conclusion supported by the first.
Incorrect.
This is a Boldface Type question, in which you are required to define the role of the two boldface sections in the argument. Read the argument and break it down using indicative words:
- Sentence 1, the first boldface portion, is a premise because it cites a fact.
- Sentence 2 states that the price of oil has risen (a premise) and then presents a prediction (conclusion) based upon that fact.
- The last sentence, the second boldface portion, begins by providing data (the growing competition...) that serves as a basis for a counter-prediction put forward by the author (may prevent prices from rising...).
The first portion in boldface does not describe a relationship of cause and effect; it describes a static condition. Such a relationship is described in the second sentence of the argument, which is not in boldface type:
Cause: a rise in the price of oil, and, subsequently, the price of fuel.
Effect: flights across Continent X are expected to become even more expensive.
You can immediately eliminate answer choices that incorrectly define the first boldface part; do not waste time reading the rest.B. The first describes a relationship of cause and effect, which contradicts the argument's main point; the second is another causal relationship that supports it.
Incorrect.
The first portion in boldface does not describe a relationship of cause and effect; it describes a static condition. Such a relationship is described in the second sentence of the argument, which is not in boldface type:
Cause: a rise in the price of oil, and, subsequently, the price of fuel.
Effect: flights across Continent X are expected to become even more expensive.
You can immediately eliminate answer choices that incorrectly define the first boldface part; do not waste time reading the rest.C. The first is evidence describing an initial situation; the second is a prediction based mainly on information that the first does not provide.
The first boldface portion is a piece of evidence presenting a certain given circumstance. The second boldface portion is the author's conclusion which is a prediction about how the story will end: the prices will probably not rise that much. It is based mostly on data in the same sentence.D. The first is evidence describing an initial situation; the second is a final piece of evidence that is not followed by a conclusion.
Incorrect.
While this answer choice defines the first boldface part correctly, it defines the second incorrectly. The secondboldface portion ends with a conclusion - the author's prediction that prices will not rise dramatically.E. The first is a fact in support of the author's prediction; the second is an opinion that is irrelevant to the author's prediction.
Incorrect.
This answer choice can be eliminated on the basis of two inaccuracies.
Firstly, while the first boldface type portion is indeed a fact (i.e. a premise), it does not - directly or indirectly - support the author's final prediction (conclusion).
Secondly, the second portion in boldface is not irrelevant to the author's prediction. In fact, it is the evidence to back up the prediction and the prediction itself..
So he himself is not sure that the price will or will not increase. My thinking is in a conclusion, the author is 100% certain. And hence this lead me to mark D. Am I missing something