Bunuel
For the past year, a network television talk-show host has been making fun of the name pf a particular brand of chainsaw, the Tree Toppler. The ridicule is obviously taking its toll: in the past 12 months, sales of the Tree Toppler have declined by 15%, while the sales of other chainsaws have increased.
Which of the following, if true, casts the most serious doubt on the conclusion drawn above?
A. The talk-show host who is ridiculing the Tree Toppler name actually owns a Tree Toppler.
B. The number of product complaints from owners of Tree Toppler has not increased in the past year.
C. The average price of all chainsaws has increased by 10 percent in the past year.
D. The number of Stores that sell the Tree Toppler has remained steady for the past year.
E. A year ago, a leading consumer magazine rated the Tree Toppler as "intolerably unsafe."
Official Explanation:
E
Step 1: Identify the Question TypeBecause this stem asks you to “cast doubt” on the conclusion, this is a Weaken question.
Step 2: Untangle the StimulusFor the last year, a talk-show host has been ridiculing Tree Toppler chainsaws. Over that time, Tree Toppler sales have fallen while other chainsaws’ sales have risen. The author concludes that the talk-show host’s jokes must have caused the declining Tree Toppler sales.
Step 3: Predict the AnswerTo weaken an argument in which X is claimed to have caused Y, consider whether Y might actually have caused X (i.e., reversal) or whether something else might have caused Y (i.e., alternative cause). In this case, it seems unlikely that the decline in sales caused the on-air ridicule; the host is making fun of the chainsaw’s name, not its declining sales. Therefore, the correct answer to this Weaken question will probably offer some alternative explanation for the decline in Tree Toppler sales.
Step 4: Evaluate the Choices(E) provides that alternative explanation. If a prominent magazine rates a chainsaw as unsafe, that could certainly deter people from purchasing it, and a subsequent decline in sales would be reasonable to expect. (E) matches the prediction and is the correct answer. If you hadn’t immediately recognized (E) as a match for your prediction, you could still find the right answer by eliminating answer choices that miss the mark. Even if the talk-show host actually owns a Tree Toppler, as (A) says, the decline in sales could still be caused by the host’s on-air ridicule; (A) is out of scope. (B) is a 180 because it actually strengthens the argument by eliminating a potential alternative explanation for the decline in sales. (C) might be tempting, but the argument actually mentions that sales of other chainsaws have increased, so an increase in the purchase price of all chainsaws is not a reasonable alternative explanation. (D) also strengthens the argument by eliminating another alternative explanation for the decline in sales (that fewer stores are carrying the Tree Toppler). Choice (E) is the correct answer.