gmat4us, let me give it a shot, but let me state a disclaimer first: I haven't been admitted anywhere yet, so my knowledge on the admissions process is weak at best. You can try posting at Ask Hjort or Ask
Accepted.com for other views.
However, going through the process of trying to interpret your situation may help me understand my situation if I have to face it sometime soon.
1) Probabilistic approach: You've applied to arguably 4 of the toughest 7 schools to apply to. Even if your chances are above average (let me use 20% + your 10%) your probabilities are:
0 admits: 24%
1 admit: 41%
2 admits: 26%
3 admits: 7%
4 admits: less than 1%.
So even when the odds are in your favor, there's still a chance of about 2.5 in ten that you would not get admitted.
2) Apps. components:
Two points I noticed were not present in your summary and are supposed to be quite important in the B-school app. are:
a) Leadership.
b) Extra-curricular activities.
I'll leave this point as it is before assuming anything because it would be a futile exercise. Maybe you can assess how you stand on this aspects and re-post?
Additionally, I could argue that some of the schools you mentioned would rather take applicants with a little bit more work experience? Maybe 4 - 6 years? I read somewhere that when applying for top schools from a tough background, anything other than a bullet proof package can doom you.
3) Poor Execution?
I haven't a clue how your essays were. For all I know they could be brilliant. But is there a chance they were just average?
4) Variability - not enough schools to counter:
Now let's assume HBS is a reach school within your portfolio, just because it is a reach school for everyone I've ever met.
Let's say you had reasonable chances at Wharton, GSB and Columbia. By assuming your Columbia app. was not Early Decision, I'd say you could be dinged by them due to yield concerns.
That leaves you with only 2 schools: Wharton (the 3rd school from the H/S/W trio) and the GSB (this year's #1 as per BW, with a huge surge in applications). Maybe your profile is not good enough? Or maybe it is but there's some inherent variability to this process which did not work in your favour this time around? You can't assume anything from your female acquantaince because:
a) The evaluation is holistic (meaning the total is more than the sum of its parts).
b) The fact that she hasn´t a clue on the meaning of buy or sell side does not mean that her leadership record or other strengths won't make her a stronger applicant than you.
c) She may be an objectively weaker applicant and yet be admitted while you (the stronger applicant in this example) are dinged just because the process is not completely precise.
Hope it helps and keep your hope. If not, we may be joining forces to re-apply next year.
L.