Hi Elmon,Yes, you've got it right, and here's the clean reason to lock it in.
This is exactly the point Bunuel made earlier in the thread when he shot down the
2/20 *
1/19 approach: multiplying by
2 ("10 first or 20 first")
double-counts the same selection.
Think about what the question actually asks: it wants
both 10 and 20 to be among your 5 picks. It does not care whether
10 landed in your hand before
20 or after. The set {10, 20, ...} is one and the same outcome either way.
- "Draw 10, then 20" - you end up holding
{10, 20}- "Draw 20, then 10" - you end up holding
{10, 20}Same result. So if you multiply by
2, you're counting that one favorable outcome
twice - which is why the answer would come out wrong.
That's the whole spirit of the combination method everyone used:
18C3 / 20C5. Combinations already ignore order, so there's simply no order to "restore" with a factor of
2.
Quick way to feel itShrink the problem. Suppose you just pick
2 numbers from the tiny set
{10, 20}. List every distinct
selection by hand:
- {10, 20}
That's it -
one outcome, not
two. You never write down {10, 20} and {20, 10} as separate picks, because a
selection has no order. The moment you'd multiply by
2, you'd be pretending those are two different things.
So your instinct is correct:
no factor of 2. Order only matters when the problem itself treats different arrangements as different outcomes - and choosing a group of integers isn't one of those.
Answer: DElmon
Remind me:
even though we switch the order 10 & 20, we don't need to multiple 2 times.