Last year, a certain orchard produced a record number of oranges. Will

Question

Last year, a certain orchard produced a record number of oranges. Will this year set another record? Consider that each orange is either produced by a current tree or by the growth of a new tree. For existing trees this year, oranges have been growing at a rate much lower than for those same trees last year. And, there is no evidence that the number of new orange trees this year will be higher than the number of new trees last year.  It is likely that the new trees this year will not produce more oranges than last year’s new trees.  The conclusion is obvious.  The number of oranges produced this year will not surpass last year’s record.

In the argument given, the two highlighted portions play which of the following roles?

A. The first is an objection that the argument refutes; the second is the primary conclusion of the argument.
B. The first is a hypothesis that is used to support the position that the argument opposes; the second is a claim used to support the argument’s main conclusion.
C. The first is a hypothesis that, if true, would support the argument’s primary conclusion; the second is that primary conclusion.
D. The first is a hypothesis that, if true, would support the argument’s primary conclusion; the second is a conclusion drawn to support that primary conclusion.
E. The first is an objection that the argument refutes; the second is the main conclusion of the argument.

akamukho25 · Answer

In my opinion the answer is C.
B1: Definitely looks like a a hypothesis, that IF TRUE, would support the conclusion, and B2 looks like the conclusion.

pinyogetmanee · Answer

Using the Manhattan prep method, first one is premise. second one is conclusion. So we're looking for something with PC. And that's C. Am I right

okHedwig · Answer

My answer is C - because definitely the first Boldline is the hypothesis which supports the author's main conclusion and Second Boldline is the Main/primary Conclusion.

Hope this helps
Thanks!

Sajjad1994 · Answer

Official Explanation

The first highlighted portion is a hypothesis: this year is not over. If that hypothesis is correct, that this year ’s trees will not produce more oranges than last year ’s new trees, then the hypothesis supports the argument’s conclusion. That conclusion is the second highlighted sentence, which postulates that this year ’s orange crop will not break last year ’s record.

Answer: C

pikachu9 · Answer

which is the primary and main conclusion here

egmat · Answer

pikachu9

Looking at your question about identifying the primary/main conclusion - this is a fundamental skill for GMAT Critical Reasoning that many students find challenging initially. Let me help clarify this for you.

Understanding "Primary" vs "Main" Conclusion

First, let's clear up the terminology:  "primary conclusion" and "main conclusion" mean the exact same thing  in GMAT Critical Reasoning.

Identifying the Main Conclusion in This Argument

The main conclusion here is:  "The number of oranges produced this year will not surpass last year's record."

How to Spot the Main Conclusion - Key Indicators:

Conclusion Signal Words : Look for phrases like "The conclusion is obvious" (which appears right before our main conclusion), "therefore," "thus," "hence," "consequently"
 
  Position in Argument : The main conclusion often appears at the end, though not always. Here it's the final statement.
 
  The "Therefore Test" : Try inserting "therefore" before different statements. The main conclusion is what everything else supports:
 - Existing trees producing less + No more new trees + New trees won't produce more →  THEREFORE  → This year won't surpass the record ✓
 
  Ask "What's the author trying to convince me of?"  The answer is your main conclusion.

Understanding the Argument Structure:

Background : Last year was a record year 
  Question Raised : Will this year set another record? 
  Supporting Evidence : 
 - Existing trees producing at lower rate
 - No evidence of more new trees
 - New trees likely won't produce more (intermediate conclusion that supports main conclusion) 
  Main Conclusion : This year won't surpass the record

Why This Matters for Answer Choice Selection:

The correct answer is  C  because:
- The first highlighted portion ("It is likely that the new trees this year will not produce more oranges than last year's new trees") is a hypothesis that supports the main conclusion
- The second highlighted portion is that main/primary conclusion itself

Quick Recognition Strategy for Future Questions:

When you see "primary conclusion" or "main conclusion," immediately:
 
 Look for conclusion indicators 
 Find what the entire argument is building toward 
 Remember: There's only ONE main/primary conclusion (though there may be intermediate conclusions that support it)

Common Trap:  Don't confuse intermediate conclusions (which support the main conclusion) with the main conclusion itself. The main conclusion is the ultimate point - everything else serves to support it.

This CR webinar  covers conclusion identification techniques in detail if you need more foundation work.

Last year, a certain orchard produced a record number of oranges. Will

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GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR) Questions

Last year, a certain orchard produced a record number of oranges. Will

Prep Toolkit

615 to 715 in 15 Days (Ria's Strategies)

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My Rewards