Many houses that do not meet the building code will collapse in the next earthquake. To meet the building code, houses must contain structural stabilizers sufficient to withstand an earthquake of 6 or lesser magnitude on the Richter scale. Dora’s house meets the building code, so Dora’s house will survive the next earthquake.
In the argument above, the two portions in boldface play which of the following roles?The argument gives us a fact about Dora’s house, then uses it to reach a further claim about what will happen in the next earthquake. So the first boldface part is
evidence, and the second boldface part is the conclusion. But that conclusion does not have to be true, because the next earthquake could be stronger than magnitude 6, or there could be other reasons the house might not survive.
(A) The first portion is a conclusion that must be true based on the evidence; the second portion is a conclusion that is not necessarily true based on the evidence.
Incorrect. The first boldface statement is not a conclusion drawn from earlier evidence. It is given as a premise.
(B) The first portion is a conclusion that must be true based on the evidence; the second portion is evidence in support of that conclusion.
Incorrect. The roles are reversed. The second boldface part is clearly the conclusion.
(C) The first portion is a conclusion that is not necessarily true based on the evidence; the second portion is evidence in support of that conclusion.
Incorrect. Again, the first boldface part is not a conclusion. It is supporting information.
(D) The first portion is evidence that supports the argument; the second portion is a conclusion that is not necessarily true based on the evidence.
Correct.
“Dora’s house meets the building code” is evidence.
“Dora’s house will survive the next earthquake” is the conclusion, and it does not necessarily follow.
(E) The first portion is evidence that supports the argument; the second portion is a conclusion that must be true based on the evidence.
Incorrect. The second statement is the conclusion, but it is too strong to say it must be true.
Answer: (D)