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Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter

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Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 22 May 2018, 02:54
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Question Stats:

45% (01:32) correct 55% (02:03) wrong based on 236 sessions

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Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?


A. New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.

B. The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.

C. The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.

D. A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.

E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.



This is from KAPLAN CAT.

Originally posted by hemanthp on 02 Oct 2010, 09:02.
Last edited by Bunuel on 22 May 2018, 02:54, edited 1 time in total.
Renamed the topic and edited the question.
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Re: Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter  [#permalink]

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New post 02 Oct 2010, 09:09
The first line of the stimulus states the conclusion: Author is saying extreme temperature in winter does NOT mean extreme temperature in summer.

Then he presents evidence that says:

Very cold winter = very hot summer (extreme = extreme)
Very hot winter = very hot summer (extreme = extreme)

This contradicts what he is saying. Now let's looking at the answer choices with this in mind:

hemanthp wrote:
Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?

-New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations. We don't care about other locations - out of scope.
-The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning. There is no reasoning here. There is merely a stated conclusion and observations/evidence related to it.
-The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty. Not really, it seems to clearly point out that the conclusion was wrong
-A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven. This doesn't say anything about causality.
-The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute. This is true. The author is trying to say that extreme does not always mean extreme but in turn ends up proving the same. So correct.



On a side note: Perhaps you can add the kudos line to your signature so you don't have to post it in every note.
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Re: Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter  [#permalink]

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New post 02 Oct 2010, 09:35
The signature strategy had zero success and the inline comment had moderate. NEvertheless I still do not get KUDOS :(. I don't manually write each time anyways.
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Re: Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter  [#permalink]

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New post 02 Oct 2010, 09:44
Haha, like I mentioned the quality of your posts matter. I understand you'd like to get kudos, but do understand that not every user might feel inclined to do that extra second of work. Having a bold signature is enough; we just don't want users posting threads simply for the sake of getting kudos :)
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Re: Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter  [#permalink]

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New post 02 Oct 2010, 10:23
hemanthp wrote:
Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?

-New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
-The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
-The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
-A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
-The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.

Don't forget KUDOS if you like the question. This is from KAPLAN CAT.


Vote for option E. I thought the key in the stimulus was the words 'falsely' and 'yet'.
Falsely would mean that the author intends to refute a claim. And yet meant a change in direction. Also 'yet' is present after a fact which intended to support the claim.
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Re: Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter  [#permalink]

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New post 02 Oct 2010, 22:36
I went for C as I assumed that extreme temperature in Winters only implied very low temperatures. But based on the explanation and OA I assume that very hot winters also means extreme temperature in Winters.
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Re: Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter  [#permalink]

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New post 31 Jul 2011, 21:31
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(E) it is.

(A): There is no relation drawn in the question between New York and other locations. Incorrect.
(B): There is no previous argument here. Incorrect.
(C): This is true (just five data points do not constitute conclusive evidence), but it does not present a fatal flaw in the author's reasoning. Incorrect.
(D): There is no causal relationship being assumed, just correlations. Incorrect.
(E): CORRECT. The coldest winters were followed by the hottest summers, and the hottest winters were also followed by the hottest summers. In all cases, extreme temperatures in winter were followed by extreme temperatures in summer. The author ends up supporting the claim he/she wants to refute.

The catch in option (E) is to realize that extreme temperature in winters need not mean extreme cold - it could also mean unnaturally hot weather in winter, uncharacteristic of the season, and so considered extreme.
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Re: Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter  [#permalink]

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New post 21 May 2018, 15:49
hemanthp wrote:
Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?

-New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
-The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
-The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
-A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
-The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.



A. It is true in global. But we are speaking about summers and winters in NY. And more - the location is not important. Out.
B. There is only 1 argument and a complex evidence. The author does not appeal to an argument. Out.
C. Sure, it is true. But only one counter example is enough for us. So out.
D. Again, one counter example is enough. Out.

E. Yes. This is it. If to be on 100% fair. The evidence consists of 2 parts:

1. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high,
2. yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high
The first one refutes the argument, the second one supports it.
But it is enough for us to be a right option.
Re: Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter &nbs [#permalink] 21 May 2018, 15:49
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