Premise 1
Six months ago, the fines for parking violations on the city's streets were raised to help pay for the parking garage that had just opened.
Premise 2: Since then, parking violations on our streets have dropped by 50 percent.
Conclusion: Hence, if we want there to be even fewer parking violations, the fines should be raised again
Two things happened at the same time:
· fines increased
· a new parking garage opened
The official assumes the reduction was caused by
higher fines, but maybe it was caused by
something else.
This is a classic
alternative cause flaw.
The reasoning in the official's argument is flawed in that the argument
(A) takes a possible effect of a reduction to be a possible cause of that reduction
Wrong: Reverse causation doesn’t happen.
It’s like saying:
Sales increased because advertising increased.
Advertising increased because sales increased.
(B) takes for granted that raising fines a second time will reduce parking violations at least as much as it did the first time
Wrong: it states “Hence, if we want there to be even fewer parking violations, the fines should be raised again”. the text doesn’t say “will reduce parking violations at least as much as it did the first time”; it just says “if we want there to be even fewer parking violations”.
(C) fails to take into account the financial benefits the city is now deriving from fines for parking violations
Wrong: Money has nothing to do with the reasoning. The conclusion is about reducing violations.
(D) takes for granted that people who park their cars illegally would prefer to park legally
Wrong: The argument is only about
what caused the reduction, not about people’s preferences
(E) fails to establish that the initial decrease in parking violations was not due to the availability of additional parking spaces
Correct: Assumption was that the decrease was caused by higher finesand then ignores another plausible cause:
the new parking garage.