Hi
tyrion009!
Apologies for a delayed response, I completely missed the notification! So you've asked me multiple questions. I can understand where you are coming from, having faced a very similar situation myself. I'll try to break down my answer and give my my personal rationale as well:
The H1B process is purely lottery based and it doesn't really matter what school you went to or where you work at. So there's no way for me to tell you what would happen to someone after the 12 month OPT period. Honestly, I do not have stats on how many people stayed or had to leave in my program, in the past. In general I have noticed that at times students willingly go back to their home country. In some cases students get relocated and continue to work, while their company applies for the H1B in the next cycle. And of course there are cases wherein students get their visa in the very first cycle. So summing up - this is unfortunately very luck based and I am not fully aware of what experiences my previous classes have had. I am only sharing scenarios that I have seen occur around me.
Your other question is about payback - I am assuming by this you mean being able to pay off your debts + earn a decent living. If your only criteria is to increase your income within the short term, then obviously you would much rather go for a STEM program that gives you more chances at the lottery (still doesn't guarantee a visa though). However, please bear in mind - when you study from a big school with a credible brand name, such as USC, you are making a long term investment. Let me explain further (this was my thought process before I took the plunge):
1. You are getting to be a part of a phenomenal alumni network (one of the top 10 in the world). The Trojan network is a real thing and everyone is willing to help a fellow trojan, I have witnessed this myself. This network will not only help you with your job hunt when you're starting out but will also help you make crucial career progressions in future. To my mind, that is more critical. A career is after all 30-35 years long. So I would encourage you to think from a long term perspective. Debts can be paid off working at your home country as well.

2. You are adding credibility to your resume by graduating from a top ranked American university. Studying from a good, well-known school will always open doors for you, especially when you're building a global career (I'm assuming that's why you are considering American schools).
3. The experience of going back to school (if you're working right now) and studying in a diverse classroom is incredible. You learn so much about other markets, cultures, communication, work ethics etc. My first experience was when I was on an exchange program in Europe in 2013 and I loved it. I knew that I had to go back to an international school and gain more of this experience. These learnings will stay with you for a lifetime and are sure to help you at your workplace.
4. Most importantly, what are you really passionate about? I knew after an MBA, an internship and a couple of years of marketing experience that this is where I wanted to be. I did look at STEM courses like analytics but I knew that I wouldn't be true to myself if I were to completely move away from marketing. I have seen that when you're very good at your job, very passionate and driven, companies go out of their way to retain you and help you with your visa. Actually, if you are that passionate about something, you could become a millionaire sitting in your home country as well! Besides, a keen interest in marketing is going to be the first criteria for evaluation of your application for the USC MS Marketing program. So you may want to give some thought to that.
Finally, if you're following the news, you will come across rumours about the new government wanting to change the OPT and H1B rules. That would change everything. The only thing that remains constant is your ambition. Everything else is just logistics and can be dealt with. Hope this helps!

tyrion009
srutichatThank you for your detailed response.
A specific doubt that I had regarding the MS Marketing programs is that almost none of them are STEM designated i.e the OPT duration is only for 12 months. In these cases, what happens after 12 months?
With H1B visa dependent on a lottery, what is the actual trend that you are witnessing for international students enrolled in MS Marketing at USC? Do majority of the students have to leave US after 12 months?
If that is the case, won't it be kinda difficult to even get a payback on the investment?