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28 Feb 2015, 14:12
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The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
.....................................................................................................................................................................
Conclusion, that the investment firm should consider transferring its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee is based on number of assumptions, that might be flawed in a major way. The argument considers a number of studies and generalizes their findings. It proceeds with some assumptions, the grownds of wich are questionable.
First, the argument assumes, that what has been a trend for past 40 years, will continue to hold in the future. While this is possible, the case might not hold in many scenarios. For instance, if a major new finding suggests that risk of major health problem caused by coffee consumption increases as the consumer ages, this might reverse the trend.
Second, the argument proceeds with the statement that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years, but does not provide any supporting evidance for this. The premise would have been much stronger, if for instance, it had quoted some tangeable statistics that would lead to increasing number of older adults.
Third, the fact that the older population will increase does not mean that the consumption of coffee will increase as well. At the same time the older population increases in number, the number of younger population might decrease at a higher rate - rate at which it would outweigh the increase in consumption of coffee resulting from increase in the number of older population.
Finally, the fact that the older population increases in number does not suggest that the younger population decrease in number. The number of younger population might stay the same, or it might increase as well. Both of these trends would lead to the increase in cola consumption.
For the reasons listed above, the conclusion, that the firm should consider transferring its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee is flawed. It would have been much more convincing, if the passage addressed all these issues.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
.....................................................................................................................................................................
Conclusion, that the investment firm should consider transferring its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee is based on number of assumptions, that might be flawed in a major way. The argument considers a number of studies and generalizes their findings. It proceeds with some assumptions, the grownds of wich are questionable.
First, the argument assumes, that what has been a trend for past 40 years, will continue to hold in the future. While this is possible, the case might not hold in many scenarios. For instance, if a major new finding suggests that risk of major health problem caused by coffee consumption increases as the consumer ages, this might reverse the trend.
Second, the argument proceeds with the statement that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years, but does not provide any supporting evidance for this. The premise would have been much stronger, if for instance, it had quoted some tangeable statistics that would lead to increasing number of older adults.
Third, the fact that the older population will increase does not mean that the consumption of coffee will increase as well. At the same time the older population increases in number, the number of younger population might decrease at a higher rate - rate at which it would outweigh the increase in consumption of coffee resulting from increase in the number of older population.
Finally, the fact that the older population increases in number does not suggest that the younger population decrease in number. The number of younger population might stay the same, or it might increase as well. Both of these trends would lead to the increase in cola consumption.
For the reasons listed above, the conclusion, that the firm should consider transferring its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee is flawed. It would have been much more convincing, if the passage addressed all these issues.
01 Mar 2015, 06:13
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This should get you a 3/6. Although the main flaws are addressed, the explanations/examples could have been better explained, with more convincing language. Also, avoid spelling/grammatical mistakes. (this is not a written/explicitly stated rule, but most good essays I have seen are at least 450 words)
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