“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffe
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24 Jul 2020, 11:36
Hello Folks,
It would be of immense help if someone can please review my AWA and give me suggestions/pointers on how to improve:
Question:
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counter examples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
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The investment and financial consulting firm is planning to transfer its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. The firm is basing its plan on a study that claims that the consumption of coffee for an average coffee drinker increases from age 10 to age 60 and remains high after age 60, and the consumption of cola for an average cola drinker reduces with age and this plan makes sense to the firm since the average population age will increasing constantly.
The plan stated above, however, relies on certain assumptions for which the author hasn’t supplied enough evidence. The plan, therefore, sounds unconvincing and has several flaws.
First, the author is basing the study conducted on a specific set of people to draw conclusion on the entire population. The author has not mentioned if the people considered were representative of the entire population. For example, the study would be flawed if only people with high work pressure who normally consume coffee to remain attentive during work were considered.
Additionally, the argument assumes that decrease in average consumption of cola and simultaneous increase in consumption of coffee will eventually lead to average revenue generated from cola less than that from consumption of coffee. This will not hold true if the revenue generated currently from consumption of cola is way higher than that from consumption of coffee. For instance, if the average spend per person on cola consumption and coffee consumption is $100 and $20 currently and spend on cola reduces by 50% and that on coffee doubles, the future spend on cola, $50, would still be higher than $40 from cola.
The argument would have been much clearer and stronger if sufficient evidence for the assumptions and flaws stated above were provided. Author could have mentioned the representation of the subjects considered in the study to establish that the results of the study could be applied on the entire population. Tying consumption to dollar amount or revenue would have helped support the claim of diverting the investment from cola to coffee.
In order to strongly conclude something, it is essential to have full knowledge of the factors. Without the information stated above, the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.