Probability of Getting into Business School

Question

Ahh..I've been studying for GMAT way too long and bored of meaningless word problems, so came up with my own applicable one and actually feel a little better now (assuming I did the math correctly this time, oh god I hope I can do the math correctly!)

Michmax3 is applying to 5 top business schools with the following acceptance rates: Chicago (22%), Stanford (5%), Berkeley (12%), Kellogg (19%) and Duke (30%). What is the probability that she will be accepted to at least one of these schools?

P (getting in at least one school) = 1- P (getting rejected from all schools)

1-(.78 x .95 x .88 x .81 x .70) =
1-(.369) = .63

So...probability that I will get in to at least one school of my choice is about 63% 
I can live with that! Happy studying everyone!

Disclaimer: Obviously not everyone has an equal probability of being accepted to begin with, so since this is based only on random selection, it will not be accurate. Maybe this question could be revised to include more details, like possibly I get +1% for being female, but maybe lose 5% for under 700 GMAT...well only until the retake hopefully!)

vwjetty · Answer

that's some good computing skills. just keep working on it and i'm sure you'll get there.

whiplash2411 · Answer

Haha, I am sure you'll get into at least one of the schools you like. I definitely hope so.

Jerz · Answer

Unfortunately, getting accepted is not a random event (every candidate does not have an equally likely chance of admittance) so probability theory doesn't work here.

Michmax3 · Answer

I know, just for fun...it's in the disclaimer. And that's not really unfortunate, otherwise you would have a lot of unqualified people in there

jordanhendrix · Answer

Also almost all those numbers are old, Duke is down to 24% (Adcom said so at an info session)
Fun stuff though, I wish it were that simple!
one more school and you'd be a lock!

shaselai · Answer

i need this!!!!!! kudos

dokiyoki · Answer

Ha Ha..Good one ! It echos my sentiments as well :-D

vwjetty · Answer

that's a good thing. It's essential that you walk into the GMAT with a good frame of mind.

supereco87 · Answer

Congrats to your excellent score. I guess the acceptance rates are highly correlated between schools on the same level. Therefore if you get accepted by one school , then you have a high probability that you also get accepted by the other schools.

Probability of Getting into Business School

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