17. Probability17.2. A wildlife center has 12 parrots ready to be moved to new enclosures: 4 male-female pairs of green parrots and 2 male-female pairs of yellow parrots. If 3 parrots are selected at random, what is the probability that the 3 parrots include a male-female pair of the same color?A. 12/55
B. 18/55
C. 33/55
D. 37/55
E. 41/55
In many probability questions, it is easier to find the probability of the opposite event and subtract it from 1. Here, instead of finding the probability of getting a male-female pair of the same color, we first find the probability of getting no such pair.
To avoid getting such a pair, only the following cases are possible:
1. all 3 parrots are green and all 3 are the same sex
2. 2 parrots are green and the same sex, and the third parrot is yellow
3. 2 parrots are yellow and the same sex, and the third parrot is green
Case 1: GGGP(GGG with no matched pair) = 8/12 * 3/11 * 2/10 = 2/55
Why?
• The first parrot can be any green parrot, so the probability is 8/12.
• After that, to avoid forming a green male-female pair, the second parrot must also be green and of the same sex as the first one. There are 3 such parrots among the remaining 11, so the probability is 3/11.
• Then the third parrot must again be green and of that same sex. There are 2 such parrots among the remaining 10, so the probability is 2/10.
Case 2: GGYFor one specific order, say green, green, yellow:
P(GGY) = 8/12 * 3/11 * 4/10 = 4/55
Why?
• The first parrot can be any green parrot, so 8/12.
• To avoid a green male-female pair, the second parrot must be green and of the same sex as the first one, so 3/11.
• Then the third parrot can be any yellow parrot, and there are 4 yellow parrots out of the remaining 10, so 4/10.
But this can happen in 3 different orders:
GGY, GYG, YGG
So the total probability for this case is
3 * 4/55 = 12/55
Case 3: YYGFor one specific order, say yellow, yellow, green:
P(YYG) = 4/12 * 1/11 * 8/10 = 4/165
Why?
• The first parrot can be any yellow parrot, so 4/12.
• To avoid a yellow male-female pair, the second parrot must be yellow and of the same sex as the first one. Since there are only 2 male yellow parrots and 2 female yellow parrots in total, only 1 such parrot remains among the 11 parrots left, so the probability is 1/11.
• Then the third parrot can be any green parrot, and there are 8 green parrots among the remaining 10, so 8/10.
This can also happen in 3 different orders:
YYG, YGY, GYY
So the total probability for this case is
3 * 4/165 = 12/165 = 4/55
_______________________
Therefore, the probability of getting no matched pair is
2/55 + 12/55 + 4/55 = 18/55
So the probability of getting at least one male-female pair of the same color is
1 - 18/55 = 37/55
Answer: D
TakeawayIn probability questions like this one, it is often easier to calculate the probability of the opposite event first and then subtract that result from 1. Also, when you calculate the probability of a specific case, do not stop after finding the probability of just one order of that case. If the same case can happen in different orders, each of those orders must be counted as well, so you need to multiply by the number of valid arrangements.
What This Question TestsThis question tests complementary probability, case counting, and careful organization of probability scenarios. It also tests whether you can identify all the ways the desired event can fail, count those cases correctly, and account for different valid arrangements within each case.