Prolonged spells of hot, dry weather at the end of the grape-growing

Question

Prolonged spells of hot, dry weather at the end of the grape-growing season typically reduce a vineyard's yield, because the grapes stay relatively small. In years with such weather, wine producers can make only a relatively small quantity of wine from a given area of vineyards. Nonetheless, in regions where wine producers generally grow their own grapes, analysts typically expect a long, hot, dry spell late in the growing season to result in increased revenues for local wine producers.

Which of the following, if true, does most to justify the analysts' expectation?

(A) The lower a vineyard's yield, the less labor is required to harvest the grapes.

(B) Long, hot, dry spells at the beginning of the grape-growing season are rare, but they can have a devastating effect on a vineyard's yield.

(C) Grapes grown for wine production are typically made into wine at or near the vineyard in which they were grown.

(D) When hot, dry spells are followed by heavy rains, the rains frequently destroy grape crops.

(E) Grapes that have matured in hot, dry weather make significantly better wine than ordinary grapes.

ID: 100896

ChiranjeevSingh · Accepted Answer

Understanding the Passage

Prolonged spells of hot, dry weather at the end of the grape-growing season typically reduce a vineyard’s yield, because the grapes stay relatively small.

Long period of hot, dry weather at the end of the grape-growing season generally reduces a vineyard’s produce.

How does the produce go down?

The grapes stay relatively small. (it’s not about fewer grapes; it’s about the size of the grapes)

In years with such weather, wine producers can make only a relatively small quantity of wine from a given area of vineyards.

The statement talks about the years which have hot, dry weather at the end of the grape-growing season.

In those years, wine producers can make only a comparatively small quantity of wine per a given area of vineyards.

Nonetheless, in regions where wine producers generally grow their grapes, analysts typically expect a long, hot, dry spell late in the growing season to result in increased revenues for local wine producers.

“Nonetheless” indicates a contrast. We can expect something contrary to the previous statement in this statement.

Analysts generally expect such hot, dry weather to lead to increased revenue for local wine producers.

So, the expectation is that such hot, dry weather is beneficial for local wine producers.

This is in contrast to the previous statement in which it seemed that this weather is not beneficial for the wine producers since such weather reduces the amount of wine per area of vineyards.

The GIST

Overall, the passage presents a paradoxical situation.

Even though a given type of weather reduces the amount of wine produced per a given area of vineyards, this weather is expected by analysts to lead to increased revenues for local wine producers.

(One reason why this can happen is that reduction in production of wine increases the price of wine signficantly. As a result, wine producers make more money out of a small quantity of wine.)

The question stem asks for an option that does most to justify the analyst’s expectation. Thus, we’re looking for an option that supports that hot, dry weather at the end of the grape-growing season will lead to increased revenues for winemakers.

The Evaluation

(A) The lower a vineyard's yield, the less labor is required to harvest the grapes.

Incorrect.   I believe that people who mark this option forget that we’re looking for an option that indicates “increased revenues” and NOT “increased profits”.

This option talks about less labor - this can indicate lower costs and perhaps more profits. However, this option nowhere indicates “increased revenues”.

Let’s say that the analysts’ expectations were around “increased profits”. Would this option be correct then?

No. This option would still be incorrect.

The following version of the option would be correct in case of “increased profits”:

A lower vineyard's yield will SIGNIFICANTLY lower the labor required to harvest the grapes.

In other words, for this option to indicate “increased profits”, the costs would need to go down more than proportionately to revenues. If revenues and costs go down in the same proportion, the profits too have to go down.

(B) Long, hot, dry spells at the beginning of the grape-growing season are rare, but they can have a devastating effect on a vineyard's yield.

Incorrect.   Option B is irrelevant.

The option talks about the spells at the beginning of the season; the argument is about the spells at the end of the season.

How rare or frequent the long hot, dry spells   at the beginning   of the season are is irrelevant. Also, how devastating they are is irrelevant.

(C) Grapes grown for wine production are typically made into wine at or near the vineyard in which they were grown.

Incorrect.   This option gives us information about where the grapes are made into wine; it says that grapes are made into wine at or near the vineyard in which the grapes are grown. In other words, the grapes are not converted into wine in a faraway location.

However, where this conversion takes place is irrelevant to the analysts’ expectation.

(D) When hot, dry spells are followed by heavy rains, the rains frequently destroy grape crops.

Incorrect.   This option talks about specific times when hot, dry spells are followed by heavy rains. In such times, the grape crops are frequently destroyed.

However, what happens in these times is not relevant.

We’re concerned with why long hot, dry spells lead to increased revenues for winemakers.

(E) Grapes that have matured in hot, dry weather make significantly better wine than ordinary grapes.

Correct.    This option indicates that hot, dry spells at the end of the grape-growing season lead to better wine.

Does better wine mean more revenues?

NOT necessarily.

However, more likely than not. (Ceteris paribus, we can expect better wine to fetch more revenues.)

It’s important to be aware that we’re not looking for surety that hot, dry weather will lead to increased revenues for local wine producers. We’re looking for an option that supports/strengthens this idea.

hariprasad · Answer

Argument is talking about increasing the REVENUES.. Not about reducing the EXPENSES.. This makes A a loser..

A and C imply that Expenses can be reduced.. What we need is justification for increased Revenues..

GMATRockstar · Answer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKJNZEFqxCg

aditya8062 · Answer

my pick is E  
 premise is  :In years with such weather, wine producers can make only a relatively  small quantity  of wine from a given area of vineyards
 conclusion is  :Nonetheless, in regions where wine producers generally grow their own grapes, analysts typically expect a long, hot, dry spell late in the growing season to result in  increased revenues  for local wine producers.

revenue  can be  increased  by either increasing  quantity or quality  and E is giving us that reason that even if qty might have reduced ,the quality of this wine will result for the increased revenue !!

itsmeabhi99 · Answer

Can someone explain the problem with A?

I find the following issue with E. As per E, the wine will be better after a hot dry weather but it fails to support how it will generate higher revenue? Does it implicitly expect that the better wine will be sold at a higher price thus bringing higher revenue for wine sellers?

Survival · Answer

The problem with A is that you must assume that 'less required labor' means 'less demand for labor', which in turn might imply that 'less money is spent on labor' if 'demand for labor stays the same and the price of labor doesn't increase'.

The problem with E is that you must assume that higher quality wine 'is sold for more'.

Life is much easier with E:)

bkhan · Answer

Another reason why A is wrong is the following

In hot season the size of the grape is reduced, this doesn't mean at all that the labor required will also be reduced since the work needed is still the same.

AnishPassi · Answer

What I understood from the post is that the OP believes option A is not true according to the passage, and thus we should reject it.

If I understood that correctly, the OP missed a very important part of the question stem: “ if true”.

Our job is not to evaluate the validity of the answer choices. Our job is to accept them as true and then check if they answer the question. So, such reasoning to reject an answer choice in this question is wrong.

MartyMurray · Answer

Prolonged spells of hot, dry weather at the end of the grape-growing season typically reduce a vineyard's yield, because the grapes stay relatively small. In years with such weather, wine producers can make only a relatively small quantity of wine from a given area of vineyards. Nonetheless, in regions where wine producers generally grow their own grapes, analysts typically expect a long, hot, dry spell late in the growing season to result in increased revenues for local wine producers.

The conclusion stated in the passage is what the analysts expect:

in regions where wine producers generally grow their own grapes, ... a long, hot, dry spell late in the growing season   result in increased revenues for local wine producers

As is often the case in Strengthen the Argument questions, in the passage, no evidence is provided for the conclusion. So, the correct answer will provide the only support provided.

Which of the following, if true, does most to justify the analysts' expectation?

This is a Strengthen question, and the correct answer will support the analysts' expectation.

(A) The lower a vineyard's yield, the less labor is required to harvest the grapes.

This choice is tempting because it indicates that there is a factor that offsets the reduction in a vineyard's yield resulting from hot dry weather, which is reduced need for labor, and reduced need for labor is presumably associated with lower labor costs.

Here's the issue with this choice though.

The conclusion is about "increased revenues" for local wine producers.

Expenses, such as labor expenses, do not affect revenues. They affect profits, but not revenue, because revenue is simply total inflow of money, not inflows less expenses.

So, even if, when there is dry weather, labor costs are lower, that fact would not indicate that revenues would increase.

Eliminate.

(B) Long, hot, dry spells at the beginning of the grape-growing season are rare, but they can have a devastating effect on a vineyard's yield.

This choice fails for two reasons.

One is that this choice is about hot spells at the beginning of the season whereas the argument is about hot spells at the end of the season.

The other is that the fact that any hot spell "can have a devastating effect on yield" certainly is not a reason to believe that a hot spell will result in increased revenues.

Eliminate.

(C) Grapes grown for wine production are typically made into wine at or near the vineyard in which they were grown.

This fact is true when there hasn't been a hot spell and when there has been a hot spell.

So, it doesn't indicate that revenue will be higher when there has been a hot spell because it doesn't indicate anything different about a season with a hot spell.

Eliminate.

(D) When hot, dry spells are followed by heavy rains, the rains frequently destroy grape crops.

The simplest way to eliminate this choice is to see that this fact about crops being destroyed cannot possibly indicate that revenues would increase. After all, a destroyed crop would bring little to no revenue.

Eliminate.

(E) Grapes that have matured in hot, dry weather make significantly better wine than ordinary grapes.

This choice is interesting.

It's logical that "significantly better wine" would be in greater demand than other wine. So, it should go for higher prices than other wine.

Accordingly, if "Grapes that have matured in hot, dry weather make significantly better wine than ordinary grapes," then wine made from grapes that have matured in a growing season the end of which was characterized by hot, dry weather should go for higher prices than other wine.

Thus, this choice provides some justification for the analysts' expectation that a long, hot, dry spell late in the growing season will result in increased revenues for local wine producers. After all, if prices per quantity of wine sold are higher, then it's possible that, even if yields are lower, wine producers' revenues will be increased.

Now, this choice doesn't  prove  the analysts' expectation correct since it could be that, even if prices for wine are higher, revenues won't be increased if yields are lower.

At the same time, the correct answer to a Strengthen question doesn't have to prove the conclusion correct. It just has to provide some support for the conclusion. So, this choice does what we need.

Keep.

Correct answer:  E

VerbalBot · Answer

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Prolonged spells of hot, dry weather at the end of the grape-growing

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Prolonged spells of hot, dry weather at the end of the grape-growing

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