Scientists today accept that the increased severity of hurricanes in

Question

Scientists today accept that the increased severity of hurricanes in the last 10 years has been a result of warmer water in the Caribbean, which “feeds” the storms as they pass over it by a mechanism not yet completely understood. Thus, these severe hurricanes are yet more evidence of global warming.
 
Which of the following, if true, would most strengthen the argument above?

(A) Accurate statistics on the warming of the earth do not go back more than 100 years.
 
(B) Scientists have not discovered a new undersea current, fueled by an undersea volcano, which could have funneled warmer water into the Caribbean.
 
(C) The arctic ice caps have been losing three feet of circumference each year for the past five years.
 
(D) A new modeling computer program projects that the severity of hurricanes will increase over the next 10 years. 
 
(E) Some scientists believe they will soon prove that the mechanism by which a storm picks up energy from warm water is based on convection.

To weaken a causal argument, propose an alternate cause. To strengthen a causal argument, remove an alternate cause. Choice (A) weakens the argument, so cross that off. Choices (C) and (D) both appear to strengthen the case for global warming in general, but do not make the important connection between the warming of the waters of the Caribbean and global warming in general. Choice (E) promises that the mechanism that creates more severe storms will soon be better understood, but that doesn’t help to make the case that the warm water causing more severe hurricanes is related to global warming.  The best answer is (B) . While choice (B) might seem unlikely, it strengthens this causal argument by removing a possible alternate cause. If there were an undersea volcano heating the Caribbean, then that might be what was causing the severe hurricanes, not global warming.

This question is a part of QOTD Question Collection

josepiusn · Answer

Option E .
Argument claims in the conclusion that "severe" Hurricanes are the evidence of Global Warming. In option E, some scientists are going to prove that how hurricanes are gaining its strength and becoming "severe" from warm water , which is resulted from global warming.

prasadyanz · Answer

how come B is correct ? having undersea volcano has nothing to do with global warming :-(

likewise, scientist proving that warm water induces storm doesn't say about global warming. imo, no answer deals with this issue. can some expert comment on this please. thanks in advance.

DmitryFarber · Answer

I looked this problem up elsewhere and found a very important typo. Answer choice B should read "Scientists have  not  discovered."

As currently printed above, B would weaken. If we switch it to "not," then it eliminates a competing explanation.  carcass , can you make the fix?

carcass · Answer

Sorry guys, but the question is correct as it is written. I checked it out on the original book. Though, is impossible in the second choice, as Dmitry pointed out, to be NOW: it must be to strengthen the argument has NOT discovered The OA is B. Added the OE Moreover, another alternative explanation by another gmat instructor confirms that is B Feel free to discuss on this question. I am here

arirux92 · Answer

Making a T diagram :

The important point is we are connecting hurricanes with global warming as it has already been deduced that warm water is connected with the storms. So all we need to strengthen is: global warming is causing warmer water.

The sentence can be broken down to :

global warming = warmer water

So prethinking, I would look for something which shows that there is not other explanation/ something which strengthens the relation.

A C D are out in the first glance, extraneous informations

Out of B and E

B) So there is no other reason why temperature is rising. This must be because of global warming ( Hold on to this)
E) " Some scientists believe they will soon prove that the mechanism by which a storm picks up energy from warm water is based on convection" This is a classic GMAT trap. Using words from the passage that really don't mean anything.

So what if storms pick up by convection? Or radiation? or blah blah. We have already deduced that hot water is fuelling the storms. Nowhere does the question talk about the mechanism through which the storm is picking up the heat.

So B is clearly the winner.

s8kadian · Answer

Scientists today accept that the increased severity of hurricanes in the last 10 years has been a result of warmer water in the Caribbean, which “feeds” the storms as they pass over it by a mechanism not yet completely understood. Thus, these severe hurricanes are yet more evidence of global warming.

Which of the following, if true, would most strengthen the argument above?

Which of the following, if true, would most strengthen the argument above?
 
(A) Accurate statistics on the warming of the earth do not go back more than 100 years. --  not enough info  
 
(B) Scientists have   now   discovered a new undersea current, fueled by an undersea  volcano ,  which could have funneled warmer water  into the Caribbean. --  not a global phenomenon 
 
(C) The arctic ice caps have been losing three feet of circumference each year for the past five years. --  not enough info  
 
(D) A new modeling computer program projects that the severity of hurricanes will increase over the next 10 years. -- i nfo regarding future is of no use  
 
(E) Some scientists believe they will soon prove that the mechanism by which a storm picks up energy from warm water is based on convection. --  not enough info

**typo in option B

shashankism · Answer

carcass

According to original explanation, the option B clearly seems to be a winner for sure. Choice (B) strengthens this causal argument by removing a possible alternate cause. If there were an undersea volcano heating the Caribbean, then that might be what was causing the severe hurricanes, not global warming.

But don't you think that sentence structure of this choice is really poor and might confuse a reader as to what choice B want to say.

Choice B:
Scientists have not discovered a new undersea current, fueled by an undersea volcano, which could have funneled warmer water into the Caribbean.

If scientist have not discovered undersea current, why it is saying 'new' and then further explaining the phenomenon 'fueled by an undersea volcano' as if everything is discovered. The sentence structure of this choice is so poor that one of the guy above believes that "not" is "now" making the sentence as "Scientists have  now  discovered a new undersea current, fueled by an undersea volcano, which could have funneled warmer water into the Caribbean."

Just for making any question difficult, we can't frame a choice like this. Overall I feel that this is a very poor question.

carcass · Answer

Hi,

we have already discussed that this question is somehow flawed.

As what you pointed out, honestly, with the adding of NOT, we made a clear zone.

Regards

AntrikshR · Answer

Warmer water in caribbean ----> Causes Hurricanes
=> Hurricanes are evidence of Global warming.
or we can say Hurricanes are causing warmer water in caribbean sea.

Warmer water is a sufficient condition and not a necessary condition to cause a hurricane.
Therefore the flaw in the argument is If X causes Y then Y may/may not have been caused by X.
Or, we can't conclude sufficiently that the warmer water is caused by hurricanes only.

QS: Strengthen

We need to strengthen this thought that the hurricanes is the reason which might have caused warmer water in the carribbean sea. One way to strengthen the argument is to negate the other causes.

(A) Accurate statistics on the warming of the earth do not go back more than 100 years.
-- Out of context

(B) Scientists have not discovered a new undersea current, fueled by an undersea volcano, which could have funneled warmer water into the Caribbean.
--Perfect. So we found one reason that the warmer water is atleast not due to under sea volcanoes. A mild strengthener.

(C) The arctic ice caps have been losing three feet of circumference each year for the past five years.
--No relevance to hurricane. Out

(D) A new modeling computer program projects that the severity of hurricanes will increase over the next 10 years.
--Prediction can't strengthen the given fact.

(E) Some scientists believe they will soon prove that the mechanism by which a storm picks up energy from warm water is based on convection.
--So some scientists BELIEVE (another hypothesis) that storm picks energy from warm water by convection. So they believe that warm water is helping storms to build. Even though if we believe this hypothesis can we say that hurricanes are causing warm water in carribbean sea? No

Crytiocanalyst · Answer

(A) Accurate statistics on the warming of the earth do not go back more than 100 years.
 THis is thoroughlt out of context and doesn't have the slightest implication therefore out

(B) Scientists have not discovered a new undersea current, fueled by an undersea volcano, which could have funneled warmer water into the Caribbean.
 THis adds strength to the fact that the current phenomenon is not clearly underrstood and other factoers leading to warming is eleminated and global warming might be the sole trouble maker therefore let us hang on to it

(C) The arctic ice caps have been losing three feet of circumference each year for the past five years.
 This might gives us evidence that global warming is happening however the statement doesn't have any impact on the presented argument therefore out

(D) A new modeling computer program projects that the severity of hurricanes will increase over the next 10 years. 
 Predictions in the future doesn't have any effect on the current scenario therefore out

(E) Some scientists believe they will soon prove that the mechanism by which a storm picks up energy from warm water is based on convection.
Similar reasoning as D

Therefore IMO B

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