Bunuel
Six years ago, the police force of Harrisville was reduced, in an effort to make a smaller but more efficient force. In the first two years, crimes in Harrisville, especially by career criminals, were at a higher rate than they had been in the previous decades. Then, for the most recent four years, the crime rate has been the lowest in the seventy years on record, with the significant drop in crimes by career criminals.
Which of the following, if true, most helps to explain the change in the crime rate between the first two years after the change and the last four years?
(A) Of the seventy similar sized cities in this and neighboring states, 40% reported some drop in the crime rate over the last four years.
(B) The population of Harrisville increased slightly each year over the last six years, with a large number of senior citizens moving to a substantial retirement community within the city.
(C) By the end of the second year of the newly organized police force, a large proportion of career criminals operating in Harrisville had been captured and incarcerated.
(D) During each of the last six year period, retention and graduation rates at the local high schools have increased.
(E) Two years after the change in the police force, police began daytime foot patrols in the downtown region.
Magoosh Official Explanation:
The credited answer is (C). If most of the career criminals had been captured and incarcerated by the end of the second year, that would explain why the rates of crime were significantly lower after the first two years: most of the worst offenders would be off the street and in jail, unable to commit new crimes.
Choice (A) is suggestive, but not the most cogent explanation. Some other cities experienced a drop in crime, and more didn't. Does this trend account for the drop in Harrisville? Maybe, maybe not. It's simply not clear, so this is not a clear explanation. Choice (A) is incorrect.
The population increased steadily over six years, so this doesn't explain the abrupt change in crime rate at the end of the second year. Furthermore, does the presence of senior citizens account for more or fewer crimes? It's unclear. This is not a good explanation. Choice (B) is incorrect.
Choice (D) is suggestive, but if the rates at high schools increases steadily for all six years, this doesn't explain the sudden change in trend for the crime rate at the end of the second year. Furthermore, do high school dropouts contribute inordinately to the crime rate? Maybe under some circumstances, but there's no evidence at all in the prompt about what might happen to such people in Harrisville. Choice (D) is incorrect.
In the first two years, did most of the crimes take place at day or during the night? Did they take place mostly downtown or mostly in other neighborhoods? We don't know the answer to either of these questions, so it's not at all clear how daytime foot patrols in the downtown region would affect the overall crime rate. Choice (E) is incorrect.