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If you reverse the answer choice D , the argument fails..So that is the answer.
Try to reverse the statement and check if argument fails. if argument fails i.e. the answer for assumption question.

1. Company X does not have money set aside for the increased costs of fuel. Company X does have money set aside for the increased costs of fuel ...This statement doesn't address Conclusion
2. The increase in the cost of fuel cannot be offset by reductions in other operating expenses. argument is not talking about operating expenses-Out Of Scope
3. The price of natural gas will never again fall below that of oil. argument is talking about future oil price rates
4. The cost of fuel needed by those of Company X's plants that converted to natural gas is not less than the cost of fuel needed by those plants still using oil. Reverse the answer, Argument breaks...So this is the answer
5. The price of oil will not experience a sudden and steep increase. Reverse this ...argument still works.so this is out
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In order to save money, some of Company X's manufacturing plants converted from oil fuel to natural gas last year, when the cost of oil was more than the cost of natural gas. Because of a sudden, unexpected shortage, however, natural gas now costs more than oil, the price of which has fallen steeply over the past year. The cost of conversion back to oil would more than negate any cost savings in fuel. So Company X's fuel costs this year will be significantly higher than they were last year.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument above depends?

(A) Company X does not have money set aside for the increased costs of fuel.

It's pretty obvious that this answer choice has nothing to do with the conclusion, which states that Company X's fuel costs this year will be significantly higher than they were last year.

(B) The increase in the cost of fuel cannot be offset by reductions in other operating expenses.

The conclusion is very specific about rising fuel bill . This answer choice deals with "total costs". It is very possible that fuel costs are the highest ever and the total costs are the lowest ever. Unlikely,but definitely possible

(C) The price of natural gas will never again fall below that of oil.

This is a very tricky answer choice. The conclusion talks about [b]total fuel costs for this year.
Assume that the company closes its financial books on Dec 31st. It is very possible that fuel prices crash in Dec 30 to their all time lows. Despite this possibility, the fuel costs for the company can be higher than last year
[/b]

(D) The cost of fuel needed by those of Company X's plants that converted to natural gas is not less than the cost of fuel needed by those plants still using oil.

A-Ha. Finally, we have an answer choice that addresses the real issue of "total fuel price". Just to be sure, let's negate this answer choice
The cost of fuel needed by those of Company X's plants that converted to natural gas is LESSthan the cost of fuel needed by those plants still using oil.
This shatters the conclusion. An assumption is an integral part of the argument. Negate the assumption and the conclusion falls apart like Romney in the presidential debate :-)

Total fuel costs Last year = Total Natural Gas Costs last year + Total Oil Costs last year
Total fuel costs this year = Total Natural Gas Costs this year + Total Oil Costs this year

Price of Natural Gas has significantly increased and price of Oil has gone down significantly.

If Total fuel costs this year needs to be significantly > Total fuel costs Last year, that implies
Total Natural Gas Costs this year >>> Total Oil Costs this year
Why ?
Because Total Oil Costs this year is much lesser than total oil cost last year.




(E) The price of oil will not experience a sudden and steep increase.

Do we really care about price of oil. Our comparison is the price of Natural Gas fuel this year Vs the price of oil LAST YEAR. This is like my neigbour winning a lottery. No material impact on my finances :-)
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Hi KarishmaB,

Conclusion - "So Company X's fuel costs this year will be significantly higher than they were last year."

(A) Company X does not have money set aside for the increased costs of fuel.

Can I eliminate this option based on the line of reasoning that whatever amount the company has set aside/or hasn't, doesn't affect our conclusion that the fuel costs this year will be significantly higher?

As in even if we negate this option, our conclusion remains foolproof?

Thanks in advance. :)
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ChandlerBong
Hi KarishmaB,

Conclusion - "So Company X's fuel costs this year will be significantly higher than they were last year."

(A) Company X does not have money set aside for the increased costs of fuel.

Can I eliminate this option based on the line of reasoning that whatever amount the company has set aside/or hasn't, doesn't affect our conclusion that the fuel costs this year will be significantly higher?

As in even if we negate this option, our conclusion remains foolproof?

Thanks in advance. :)

Yes, whether they have set aside money or not doesn't matter. The point is will their costs be higher? How they will pay for it is beyond our scope.
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