hi, could somebody review my awa? The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counter examples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
The argument claims that firm should consider transferring their investment from Cola Loca to Early Bird Cofee. The argument is inconclusive without data supporting its hypothesis, tends to manipulate facts to present a distorted view of the reality, and also is a leap of faith reasoning without clear outcomes. In sum, the argument could be improved if it supported with relevant data on which its core assumptions depend on.
First, the argument readily assumes that only number of older adults will increase over the next 20 years. This statement can be incorrect because there could also be an increase in number of new borns that will increase the demand for cola in next10 years.Clearly, solely relying on one aspect is not a good indicator of how things will turn out in the future., The argument could have been much clearer if it explicitly stated data regarding the age and number of people in next 20 years.
Second, the argument claims that consumption of coffee increases from age 10 and keeps increasing after the age 60 also.Whereas, the consumption of cola decreases with the age. This is again a very weak and unsupported claim as the argument does not really take into account any data to support the claim. If the argument provided information to support the trend, it would have been more clearer to convince its goal.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the above mentioned reasoning and is therefore not convincing. It would be considerable stronger if the author clearly provided the statistics supporting the correlation between the age and demand for coffee and tea. In order to assess the merit of a decision to transfer the investment from one company to another it is necessary to have full knowledge of the effects of change in demand on the companies. Without any supporting data, the argument remains indefensible and open to debate.