Surveys in Lynzia indicate that while more than half of all Lynzians over thirty read a newspaper regularly, only 10 percent of Lynzians in their twenties do. Since the mean age of Lynzia’s population is quite low, with people in their twenties constituting a large proportion of the population, it is safe to predict that the percentage of Lynzians who regularly read a newspaper will be much lower ten years from now than it is today.
Which of the following, if true, casts most doubt on the prediction?The prediction assumes that people now in their twenties will continue to read newspapers at low rates as they get older.
The key weakness is that newspaper reading may be related to age, not to this generation specifically. If people usually start reading newspapers more regularly after their twenties, the prediction is doubtful.
A. The number of Lynzians in their twenties is less than the number of Lynzians over thirty.
This weakens only slightly, if at all. Even if people in their twenties are fewer than those over thirty, they can still be a large enough group to affect the future percentage.
B. The surveys counted someone as reading a newspaper regularly if that person read a newspaper more than four times a month.
This explains the survey definition, but it does not show that the future percentage of newspaper readers will not fall.
C. The proportion of Lynzians who regularly read a newspaper was higher 20 years ago than it is today.
This supports the idea of decline rather than weakening it.
D. The proportion of Lynzians in their twenties who regularly read a newspaper has always been low.
This is correct. If people in their twenties have always had low newspaper readership, then today’s low rate among people in their twenties may simply be a normal age pattern. Those people may read newspapers more often when they are older, just as the current over-thirty group does.
E. The number of newspapers published in Lynzia has been gradually diminishing over the last several decades.
This supports the prediction that newspaper reading may decline, so it does not weaken the argument.
Answer: (D)