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Question: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of the economists in the investment companies now agree this is so, though the leading academic economists still think otherwise. since the investment companies' economists are risking their jobs when they make forecasts, whereas academic economists have lifelong tenure, it generally makes sense to take the investment companies' economists more seriously.

Conclusion: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong
Premise: Most of the economists in the investment companies now agree
Counter Argument: The leading academic economists still think otherwise

The author says that we ought to believe the economists in investment companies over the academic economists because they have more skin in the game and they are putting money on the table whereas the academic economists are not

Lets go through the options:


A. by comparing the number of experts who agree with the conclusion with the number who disagree with the conclusion
We do no such comparisons

B. through an assessment of the likely risks and consequences of believing one or another strand of expert opinion
Although one might think there is some level of risk assessment going on in the argument, we clearly do not talk about consequences

C. through projection from the economic prospects for investment companies to the economic prospects for the economy as a whole
No such projection was discussed

D. through an assessment of the relative reliability of the experts who agree with the conclusion as compared with that of those who disagree
Bingo, this talks about how the economists from the investment banks are more reliable

E. by attacking the character of those experts who disagree with the conclusion
They do not attack the character, instead it is a comparison between the 2 groups and the relative reliability of the investment folks
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