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The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of

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The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 15 Jun 2016, 11:51
7
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A
B
C
D
E

Difficulty:

  95% (hard)

Question Stats:

47% (02:09) correct 53% (02:10) wrong based on 191 sessions

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The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of the economists in the investment companies now aggree this is so, though the leading academic economists still think otherwise. since the investment companies' economists are risking their jobs when they make forecasts, wheras academic economists have lifelong tenure, it generally makes sense to take the investment companies' economists more seriously.

The main conclusion of the argument is supported only

A. by comparing the number of experts who agree with the conclusion with the number who disagree with the conclusion

B. through an assessment of the likely risks and consequences of believing one or another strand of expert opinion

C. through projection from the economic prospects for investment companies to the economic prospects for the economy as a whole

D. through an assessment of the relative reliability of the experts who agree with the conclusion as compared with that of those who disagree

E. by attacking the character of those experts who disagree with the conclusion

Originally posted by neashwar on 10 Nov 2011, 03:51.
Last edited by Skywalker18 on 15 Jun 2016, 11:51, edited 1 time in total.
Added the OA
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New post 10 Nov 2011, 06:20
IMO option B.

This is because the argument assumes that if the investment companies' economists make a wrong or incorrect prediction, it is likely that they will lose their job. However, the academic economists' jobs are safe even when their prediction turns out to be an incorrect one.
This suggests that the conclusion is based on the likely assessment of the risks and consequences of each economists' opinion.
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New post 11 Nov 2011, 02:45
I struggled with this one. What's the OA?
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New post 11 Nov 2011, 04:20
I will go with B. Mainly because of this "Since the investment companies' economists are risking their jobs when they make forecasts"
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New post 12 Nov 2011, 03:38
D for me.

The argument tries to say that investment company's economists are more reliable than the academics because the economists are accountable for their predictions. The academics might be able to get away with a wrong prediction though. That is the idea I see.

OA ?
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New post 13 Nov 2011, 00:56
I choose C. What is the OA?

C. through projection from the economic prospects for investment companies to the economic prospects for the economy as a whole
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New post 18 Nov 2011, 07:13
I was torn between B and D originally, but after taking a second look at them I believe D is the correct answer. It is the economists who are taking a risk, and not the person deciding which economist to agree with.

D
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New post 18 Nov 2011, 07:48
I vote for D . Waiting for someone to post OA

Strengthen the Conc:

Indust Eco eco risk job- forecasts - Acad Eco long tenure, take Indust Eco opinion more seriously

---------------------------------------------

- IE agree - Eco recovery to be strong
- BUT AE disagree - ECO recovery not to be strong

A - IRR
B - Open discussion and IRR
C - IRR
D - "Relative" proportion to who agree vs who disagree - correct
E - Irr
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New post 19 Nov 2011, 09:54
I think the answer is D. I was wavering between B and D, but went with D since the answer focuses on the reliability of the experts in question. Since the conclusion focused on the reliability of either group of experts (due to job insecurity or lack thereof), I think that D would be the most supporting.
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New post 19 Nov 2011, 10:02
My 2nd thought, I choose D. This answer is more relevant and precise in supporting the argument.
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New post 24 Nov 2011, 05:29
+1 D.........OA please...........
The coming economic recovery will surely be strong.=>main conclusion
Most of the economists in the investment companies now aggree this is so, though the leading academic economists still think otherwise since the investment companies' economists are risking their jobs when they make forecasts, wheras academic economists have lifelong tenure, .=>premise
it generally makes sense to take the investment companies' economists more seriously.=>intermediate conclusion
A. by comparing the number of experts who agree with the conclusion with the number who disagree with the conclusion number of....Out of scope
B. through an assessment of the likely risks and consequences of believing one or another strand of expert opinion.Risks and consequences after believing hasnt been discussed ; only reasons for why one strand might be more believable has been discussedC. through projection from the economic prospects for investment companies to the economic prospects for the economy as a whole. Economic prospects of investment companies not being discussed at all.
D. through an assessment of the relative reliability of the experts who agree with the conclusion as compared with that of those who disagree.CORRECT Thats what has been done by the author.....according to him the industry experts are relatively more reliable because they have an incentive to be correct
E. by attacking the character of those experts who disagree with the conclusion. Charecter doesnt come into picture
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New post 25 Nov 2011, 05:53
I was struggling between C and D . But at the end I chose C . Can someone please post the OA.
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New post 25 Nov 2011, 21:43
I will go with D.
Exp :
Close call between B and D , though B talks about the risks and consequences of believing one to other ,not the argument of reasoning . Whereas D talks rightly about the reliability ( ''it generally makes sense to take the investment companies' economists more seriously'') which explains the situation.
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New post 06 Dec 2011, 04:24
conclusion: trust the economist from the investment companies.
reason: their job depends on it.

A: out, nothing to do with the number of economist on the both sides
B: evaluating risk, might not help the economist from the investment companies.
C:comparing economic prospects wont help.
E: out of scope.

D is the only one left!

Whats the OA.
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New post 09 Dec 2011, 09:52
I was torn between b and D.
B is wrong though because it talks about the risks involved in believing in the strand of opinion.
D is correct because it analyzes why one set of opinions is more reliable than another.
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New post 15 Jan 2019, 01:07
A. Out of scope. Numbers really are not a concern here. It is the collective opinion that matters.
B. Risks and consequences involved in believing hasn't been discussed; only reasons for why one strand might be more believable has been discussed
C. Economic prospects of investment companies not being discussed at all.
D. CORRECT. Analyzes why one set of opinions is more reliable than another. According to author, the industry experts are relatively more reliable because they have an incentive to be correct
E. Character doesn’t come into picture
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New post 15 Jan 2019, 02:03
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Option B is a trap; reading carefully it talks of likely risks emanating from believing the opinion. Now, the risk assessment in the passage talks of and deals with relative risks being undertaken by the experts and not relative risks flowing out of believing the opinions. D is much better as it allows for assessment of the reliability of the experts- this is what the passage precisely does when it states that the corporate economists are more reliable than the academic ones because their job is on the line.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of   [#permalink] 15 Jan 2019, 02:03
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