Explanation
The country of Boralia is among the world's largest exporters of timber. Fearing that excessive logging is accelerating deforestation, the Boralian government plans to limit timber exports to three-quarters of current volume. But Boralia cannot lose a quarter of its revenues from timber exports without experiencing a large increase in unemployment throughout the economy. Therefore, imposing the planned export limit will render the job retraining that the government will provide for former loggers pointless.The conclusion of the argument is the following:
imposing the planned export limit will render the job retraining that the government will provide for former loggers pointlessThe reasoning supporting that conclusion is that limiting timber exports won't cause unemployment just in logging. It will cause unemployment "throughout the economy." So, there won't be any point in retraining loggers because there won't be jobs for them in other parts of the economy anyway.
Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?The correct answer will somehow add support for the conclusion.
A. Thanks to effective, long-standing reforestation programs, other countries that export timber are under no pressure to curtail their timber harvests.This choice has no clear effect on the argument.
After all, the fact that other countries don't have to curtail their harvests doesn't clearly make unemployment higher in Boralia or make the job training program pointless.
We could perhaps make up a story about how the fact that other countries don't have to curtail their harvests means that timber prices won't increase because there won't be a big decrease in supply and that therefore Boralia won't see the benefit of an increase in the prices of timber to mitigate the effects of the export limit. However, my sense is that that story is a little too much of a "suppose ... suppose" story to be the reason why a choice is the correct answer to a GMAT Critical Reasoning question. So, unless no other choice works at all, this won't be the correct answer.
Eliminate but be open to revisiting if no other choice works.
B. The major Boralian timber companies are planning to make larger quantities of finished wood products than they used to.What does this choice mean? I'm not really sure what the effects of timber companies making larger quantities of finished wood products are. Maybe they will be able to export finished products because exports of finished products are not affected by the limit?
Anyway, only one thing matters here. We need a choice that's a reason to believe that imposing the limit will render the job retraining provided for loggers pointless, and the fact that timber companies will make finished products doesn't make job retraining pointless.
If anything it goes against the conclusion by giving us reason to believe that loggers trained to make finished wood products will get jobs.
Eliminate.
C. A reduction of Boralian timber exports by as much as a quarter would cause world market prices for timber to rise sharply.If anything, this choice goes in the wrong direction.
We need reason to believe that the prediction presented by the passage will prove to be correct. However, increases in timber prices can only help the economy of Boralia, which is "among the world's largest exporters of timber."
Anything that helps Boralia's economy would serve to minimize unemployment.
The fact that something may serve to minimize unemployment in Boralia is not reason to believe that the job retraining that the government will provide for former loggers will be pointless.
Eliminate.
D. The only job categories in which employment in Boralia is growing are newly emerging categories for which no standardized training is feasible.This choice does just what we need.
We already have some evidence that imposing the planned export limit will render the job retraining that the government will provide for former loggers pointless. That evidence is that imposing the export limits will result in an large increase in unemployment.
Now, this choice adds even more reason to believe the conclusion by showing that the job training will be pointless even though some job categories are growing because it's not feasible, i.e., doable, to train people for those jobs in a standardized way in which a government training program would.
So, this choice strengthens the argument.
Keep.
E. The unemployment rate among Boralians who have never been employed in logging operations is currently the lowest it has been in decades.If anything, this choice goes in the wrong direction.
We need reason to believe that the job retraining that the government will provide for former loggers will be pointless.
However, the fact that "the unemployment rate among Boralians who have never been employed in logging operations is currently the lowest it has been in decades" means that, even if unemployment increases, it will be increasing from a relatively low point. In that case, even if there is a large increase in unemployment, unemployment may still be pretty low.
In that case, the job retraining that the government will provide for former loggers may not be pointless because there may still be many jobs available.
So, if anything, this choice weakens, rather than strengthens, the case for the conclusion.
Eliminate.
Correct answer: D