The incidence of suicide in the country of Travonia has increased dram

Question

The incidence of suicide in the country of Travonia has increased dramatically in recent years, as evidenced by the fact that since the introduction of several nonprescription brands of sleeping pills, the number of deaths from overdoses alone has nearly doubled. However, certain types of suicides have not increased in number during this period. It is true that elderly suicides have seen a greater than 70 percent increase, but teen suicides now account for only 30 percent of all suicides in the country. This is a significant decrease over 1985, when teen cases represented 65 percent of all country-wide suicides.

The argument above is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it does which of the following?

(A) It discounts the possibility of suicides occurring in groups other than the elderly and teenagers.

(B) It takes for granted that the introduction of non-prescription sleeping pills has had the same effect on two different demographic groups.

(C) It assumes that a decrease in the percentage of teen suicides necessarily signifies a decrease in the number of teen suicides.

(D) It overlooks the possibility that the total number of deaths in Travonia has increased since 1985.

(E) It relies on evidence that contradicts its conclusion

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Ishaan30 · Answer

The main conclusion here would be - 
 
To criticize, we have to play with the assumption that 
 
means that the overall number did not increase. If in 1985 the number of deaths were 100 and 65 of those were teen deaths, it may very well be possible that this year the number of deaths is 300 and the number of deaths is 100 (30%).

Doesn't matter since the deaths would then be categorized anyway.  NO

Has nothing to do with the conclusion.  NO

BINGO   IMO , the correct answer because it attacks the conclusion directly.

NO  because the population could have increased from 100 to 200, from 65 deaths(65% of 100) to 60 deaths(30% of 200) and yet still the suicide count in that category would not have increased. So this does not appropriately attack the conclusion.

NO

quiaitaque · Answer

Ishaan30 , I too believe the answer is C as the argument seems to conclude that the number of teen suicides that are reported to be on a declining trend owing to the reduction in the percentage of teen suicides in Travonia. But this goes against a crucial concept of associating a delcine in percentage to a decline in the Absolute Value of the Population. Hence, Statement C is most vulnerable to the argument.

However, I was on edge with Answer D since the statment " It overlooks the possibility that the total number of deaths increased" also resonates with the concept of Percentage V Absolute Values. That is as the increase in the total number of deaths was not considered, it resulted in confusion over whether the reduction in percentage of teen suicides meant a decline in such cases or not.

egmat  : Would appreciate a clarification over this doubt.

findingmyself · Answer

The argument is saying that teen suicides decreased from 65% to 30% or in other terms, the absolute number has decreased. But the problem is that a decrease in % necessarily doesn't mean a decrease in the absolute number.

Let's say in 1985 the number of suicides was 1000, elderly 70 were (7%), and 930 were teens (93%) 
 Now, in 1985 the imagine if the number of suicides becomes 7000, and the elderly increases by 70% which is 7+7*70/100=11.9% and teens is only 30% 
 The new suicide will be elderly, 11.9~12% of 7000, which is 84, and teens is 30% of 7000, which is 2100 
 This is not a significant decrease; in fact it is an increase from the earlier 930 cases to 2100 cases

(A) It discounts the possibility of suicides occurring in groups other than the elderly and teenagers. 
 Incorrect: Doesn't point to the flaw in the argument
 
 (B) It takes for granted that the introduction of non-prescription sleeping pills has had the same effect on two different demographic groups. 
 Out of scope
 
 (C) It assumes that a decrease in the percentage of teen suicides necessarily signifies a decrease in the number of teen suicides. 
 Correct: As proved above
 
 (D) It overlooks the possibility that the total number of deaths in Travonia has increased since 1985. 
 Total number of deaths is not what we are discussing here, we are only talking about suicided
 
 (E) It relies on evidence that contradicts its conclusion 
Irrelevant: The evidence is not contradicting with conclusing, The conclusion is correct about 65% decrease.

egmat · Answer

quiaitaque

Looking at your analysis, you've done an excellent job identifying the core flaw in the argument - the confusion between percentage and absolute values. Your reasoning for choosing  C  is spot-on! Let me help clarify why  D  doesn't work here.

The Critical Distinction: "Deaths" vs. "Suicides"

You're absolutely right that both  C  and  D  touch on the percentage vs. absolute value concept. However, there's a crucial scope difference:

Option C:  "...decrease in the percentage of  teen suicides  necessarily signifies a decrease in the number of  teen suicides "
→ This directly addresses the argument's flaw about  suicide statistics

Option D:  "...the total number of  deaths  in Travonia has increased"
→ This refers to  ALL deaths  (from any cause - accidents, disease, natural causes, etc.)

Why This Matters:

The argument is specifically about  suicides  and their distribution among different age groups. The author states:
- Overall  suicide  incidence has increased dramatically
- Teen  suicides  dropped from  65\%  to  30\%  of all  suicides 
- Concludes certain types of  suicides  haven't increased

The argument already acknowledges that total  suicides  have increased ("increased dramatically"). So the flaw isn't about overlooking an increase - it's about misinterpreting what a percentage decrease means when the total has increased.

Quick Test: 
If we knew the total number of  all deaths  in Travonia (from all causes), would it help evaluate whether teen suicide  numbers  decreased? No - we'd still need to know the total number of  suicides specifically .

Key Takeaway for Similar Questions: 
When evaluating answer choices, pay close attention to the  exact scope  of terms used:
- "Deaths" ≠ "Suicides" 
- "All deaths" is a much broader category than "all suicides"
- The correct answer will precisely target the argument's actual scope

Your instinct about the percentage vs. absolute value flaw was perfect - just remember to match the  exact population  being discussed in the argument!

Bunuel · Answer

KAPLAN OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:

Where do the test makers find these depressing places? People in Travonia are killing themselves in record numbers. Let's see what's going on. The author states that Travonia's suicide rate has increased, citing an increase in the number of overdoses following the recent release of certain brands of sleeping pills. Getting to the heart of the argument, the author then asserts that certain types of suicides have not increased in number, conceding that the percentage of elderly suicides has increased but noting that the percentage of teen suicides has decreased. The latter fact sounds like good news on the face of it, but is tempered by the fact that the author blurs the distinction between numbers and percents. just because the percentage represented by teen suicides has decreased, that doesn't mean that fewer teens are committing suicide. A decreased percentage needn't signify a decreased number of suicides, and the author's flaw comes in failing to recognize this, as (C) expresses. A common logical flaw, indeed.

(A) The argument doesn't explicitly discuss other groups, but it certainly doesn't discount the possibility that other groups might exist.

(B) Not really, since the author doesn't link the sleeping pill takers to either demographic group, as mentioned in the explanation for (A).

(D) The total number of deaths in general is outside the scope of the argument, which deals exclusively with deaths from suicides and overdoses. The author need not consider the overall death figures in Travonia in order to make this argument.

(E) is vague, and wrong. The evidence about percentages doesn't contradict the author's conclusion, it just doesn't necessarily support it in the way the author suggests.

An 800 test taker is crystal clear on the distinction between numbers and percentages.

The incidence of suicide in the country of Travonia has increased dram

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The incidence of suicide in the country of Travonia has increased dram

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