Bunuel
The mayor of Newtown is up for re-election in a month’s time and is extremely apprehensive of his chances. According to a recent survey conducted by a news channel in Hampstead, Newtown’s most populous suburb, more than 80 percent of the respondents stated that they would not vote for the current mayor.
The mayor’s apprehensions are based on which of the following assumptions?
(A) The people who were part of the survey will in no case change their mind.
(B) The opinion of the residents of Hampstead is a pretty accurate representation of the opinion of the residents of Newtown as a whole.
(C) The mayor was recently involved in a corruption scandal that received a lot of negative publicity in the print media.
(D) The mayor did not do enough to help the victims of the hurricane that struck Newtown last year.
(E) In the last three elections for the post of the mayor in Newtown, the incumbent mayor has never been re-elected to office.
The mayor of NEWTOWN is apprehensive of his chances of win the upcoming re-election.
A survey is conducted at the region of HAMPSTEAD - this is the most populous suburb of NEWTON.
The outcome of the survey was MORE than 80% responding that they won’t vote for the current mayor.
We need to answer : WHY is the mayor so apprehensive?
(A) The people who were part of the survey will in no case change their mind.
Option A is wrong because the change of mindset is to the populous suburb Hampstead only. Even though only 80% have said they won’t vote for the current mayor. There might be a greater chance the mayor might get votes from rest of the regions to compensate this fall in votes.
The reason for being apprehensive is not concrete.
(B) The opinion of the residents of Hampstead is a pretty accurate representation of the opinion of the residents of Newtown as a whole.
If the opinion of residents of Hampstead are reverberating in sync with the option of the residents of Newtown as a whole. Then this clearly paints a sad picture of the result for the current mayor. As 80% have expressed their dissatisfaction on the current Mayor, thus making his winning chances low.
(C) The mayor was recently involved in a corruption scandal that received a lot of negative publicity in the print media.
Even though the mayor might have been involved in a corruption scandal. The apprehension expressed in the question stems from the fact that the survey results of Hampstead is a cause of concern. Hence, eliminating it.
(D) The mayor did not do enough to help the victims of the hurricane that struck Newtown last year.
The apprehension is based on the survey results only, and this might be an add on factor. But, not the exact cause for his apprehension. Hence, eliminating it.
(E) In the last three elections for the post of the mayor in Newtown, the incumbent mayor has never been re-elected to office.
This can be the trend in the past. But, there is an equal probability that the incumbent mayor might win. Moreover, this doesn’t express the apprehension cause. Hence, eliminating it.
Option B