The mayor of Newtown is up for re-election in a months time and is ex

Official Explanation

Answer: B

The use of the word survey in the stimulus should give you a hint that you need to look for an error of Representativeness in this question. The mayor’s conclusion is based on the results of the survey but the survey was just conducted in Hampstead. What if the residents of Hampstead don’t like the mayor for personal reasons? Then the residents of other localities might still vote for the mayor and the mayor could still win.

So, for the mayor to conclude that his chances are not very good, he has to assume that the survey in question was representative of the entire population of Newtown. B states this best and is the correct answer.

A lot of the options (C, D, E) provide additional negative points about the mayor but these are irrelevant to the argument at hand, since the evidence in the argument is the survey of voters.

(A) The mayor’s conclusion is based on the results of the survey. What happens after the survey (whether people change their mind or not) is irrelevant.

(B) The correct answer.

(C) This is not the reason why the mayor fears his chances.

(D) Same as C.

(E) Same as C.

The mayor is apprehensive about his chances of re-election based on the survey results in Hampstead, Newtown's most populous suburb. To understand the mayor's assumptions, let's evaluate each answer choice:

(A) The people who were part of the survey will in no case change their mind.
- This option doesn't directly address the mayor's assumptions about the survey results or his re-election chances. It focuses on the respondents not changing their minds, but it doesn't clarify the mayor's concerns.

(B) The opinion of the residents of Hampstead is a pretty accurate representation of the opinion of the residents of Newtown as a whole.
- This option directly addresses the mayor's assumption. If the mayor is apprehensive based on the survey in Hampstead, it assumes that the opinion of Hampstead residents is a good representation of Newtown residents as a whole.

(C) The mayor was recently involved in a corruption scandal that received a lot of negative publicity in the print media.
- This option introduces a different factor, a corruption scandal, which could impact the mayor's re-election chances, but it doesn't directly address the assumption related to the survey results.

(D) The mayor did not do enough to help the victims of the hurricane that struck Newtown last year.
- This option introduces another factor related to the mayor's actions during a hurricane, but it doesn't directly address the assumption related to the survey results.

(E) In the last three elections for the post of the mayor in Newtown, the incumbent mayor has never been re-elected to office.
- This option introduces historical election data, but it doesn't directly address the assumption related to the survey results.

The correct assumption that underlies the mayor's apprehensions is that the opinion of the residents of Hampstead is a pretty accurate representation of the opinion of the residents of Newtown as a whole (Option B). If the mayor is relying on the survey results from Hampstead to gauge his chances in Newtown, he must assume that Hampstead's opinion reflects the broader sentiment in the entire town. Therefore, Option (B) is the correct answer.