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#Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married

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New post 23 Sep 2015, 01:41
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In a monogamous culture, 100% of the adults are married. The average number of children per family is five and over-population is a threat. Programs to encourage birth-control have been ineffective. It has been suggested that this failure is due to these programs ignoring a tradition that values male children very highly, so that every parent wants to have at least one son. It is proposed that couples be encouraged to use birth-control measures after the birth of their first son.

If this proposal is widely accepted in the culture, we may expect that:

A. the rate of population increase will be slowed, and future generations will contain a disproportionately high number of females.

B. the rate of population increase will be slowed, and the gender balance in future generations will remain as it is at present.

C. the rate of population growth will remain the same, and future generations will contain a disproportionately high number of females.

D. there will be no significant effect either on population growth or on gender balance.

E. the population will decline precipitously, because approximately half of all families will have only a single child.

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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Sep 2015, 04:25
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The average number of children per family is five.
Failure is due to these programs ignoring a tradition that values male children very highly,
so that every parent wants to have at least one son.

Proposal: couples be encouraged to use birth-control measures after the birth of their first son.

If this proposal is widely accepted in the culture, we may expect that:
(Application question......if x plan is applied then what can happen.....)

We have two scenarios
1. first child is male child and birth control measures are taken(male:female gets higher)
2. first child is not male child and let us say 4 female and one male(female:male is higher)

this will ensure that rate of population increase will be slowed, but gender imbalance will remain.

A. the rate of population increase will be slowed, and future generations will contain a disproportionately high number of females.
(high no of females is possible as per case 2 but not case 1)

B. the rate of population increase will be slowed, and the gender balance in future generations will remain as it is at present.
(This is possible in all circumstances of both cases 1 & 2)

C. the rate of population growth will remain the same, and future generations will contain a disproportionately high number of females.
(high no of females is possible as per case 2 but not case 1 and rate will not remain same)

D. there will be no significant effect either on population growth or on gender balance.
(This cannot be true in any case)

E. the population will decline precipitously, because approximately half of all families will have only a single child.
(there is no guarantee that approx half will have single male child)
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 24 Oct 2015, 08:26
Probability of getting a male or female is same.This leads to indecision in the the number of children the family may have.So in this aspect I don't think any of the options are correct.
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New post 30 Oct 2015, 13:33
pkm9995109794 wrote:
Probability of getting a male or female is same.This leads to indecision in the the number of children the family may have.So in this aspect I don't think any of the options are correct.


I think the probability of getting a male or female child is exactly 1/2.But there will be no assurance that the population will decrease,cause no one knows how many female will be born in each family.So, option E cannot be correct.And among the others options B seems right but though not a solid answer.
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Dec 2015, 14:12
I see B cud be correct, iff the probability of a son = that of a daughter = 1/2. BUT that is an assumption an totally outside knowledge, which is WRONG too in reality. Male:Female birth ratio is always >1 in reality.

Does GMAT approbate this practice? Any suggestions?
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Dec 2015, 15:59
Hi, I have a more complete argument for why B is correct and E isn't:

Firstly, we actually have an infinite number of scenarios:

Case 1 (1 male), Case 2 (1 female, one male), Case 3 (2 females, one male) e.t.c.

Case 1 is 50% likely, and each subsequent case is half as likely as the case preceding. At some point the chance of actually having that many children drops, and there is a hard ceiling as well.

When I did the maths I was surprised to see that if you allow the families to have enough children, the ratio of m:f remains about 1:1. In fact, if you allow families to have just 8 children, the ratio is 102m:100f. Logically this is because the children which you are not having have 50% chance to be a girl and 50% chance to be a boy. Since we know that the average family size was 5 before, it is reasonable to assume families can go up to a high enough number of children to get the ratio back down to roughly 1:1.

The expected number of children per family does drop significantly to 2 (or slightly below 2 for smaller maximum numbers of children).

Therefore B is correct, the rate of growth will drop and the ratio of m:f will stay roughly the same.

E is incorrect as it states that the population will decline. If families have on average 2 children, the population will actually stay the same.
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Dec 2015, 23:47
IMO (A)

I categorized the question in 2 parts,
1. Before the birth of the first son
2, After the birth of the first son

Based on the information, Point 1 will not have any impact on the rate of population as well as the gender diversity.
What people do after the birth of the first son is what will impact, so certainly population growth will be slowed.
As for future generations , People who want multiple male children will not be able to achieve that hence their the male to female ratio will surely change..
Why will it be inclined towards the females is because, less male children will be born as a result of the policy..

Correct me if I am wrong

Sugestions and criticisms are welcome..
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 02 Apr 2016, 03:13
Hi Experts,

Can you suggest if this question is worth investing time?

IMO the rate of the population growth can decrease, increase or remains same.
(Considering the extreme cases)

Every first child is a male child. --> Decrease

every fifth child is male child. --> Remains same

none of the first 5 children are male. --> Increase
(People can argue over this, but it is no where mentioned that the society will maintain the average of 5 children, if that would have been the case then the growth would have been same.)
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New post 16 Apr 2016, 06:09
Sirs, I still feel ambiguous about this answer B.

To make a case, there are 500 families in this case, means combinations of 500 males : 500 females.
As the probability of male/female ratio for each birth is 50%/50%.
In the case: 250 families get first births are all males => 250 male births
The other 250 families get all first births are all females, and then continue to give the second births which are all females => 250 males for 250 first births and 250 females for second births.

=> total births of 500 families will be 500 males : 250 females.
So how the gender keep its balance in this case?

Please correct me if I am wrong.

To be honest, I don't agree with any answer choice.
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 16 Apr 2016, 06:28
Nevernevergiveup wrote:
The average number of children per family is five.
Failure is due to these programs ignoring a tradition that values male children very highly,
so that every parent wants to have at least one son.

Proposal: couples be encouraged to use birth-control measures after the birth of their first son.

If this proposal is widely accepted in the culture, we may expect that:
(Application question......if x plan is applied then what can happen.....)

We have two scenarios
1. first child is male child and birth control measures are taken(male:female gets higher)
2. first child is not male child and let us say 4 female and one male(female:male is higher)

this will ensure that rate of population increase will be slowed, but gender imbalance will remain.

A. the rate of population increase will be slowed, and future generations will contain a disproportionately high number of females.
(high no of females is possible as per case 2 but not case 1)

B. the rate of population increase will be slowed, and the gender balance in future generations will remain as it is at present.
(This is possible in all circumstances of both cases 1 & 2)

C. the rate of population growth will remain the same, and future generations will contain a disproportionately high number of females.
(high no of females is possible as per case 2 but not case 1 and rate will not remain same)

D. there will be no significant effect either on population growth or on gender balance.
(This cannot be true in any case)

E. the population will decline precipitously, because approximately half of all families will have only a single child.
(there is no guarantee that approx half will have single male child)


Can you provide all possible situations and prove the validity!
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Jan 2017, 04:08
It is proposed that couples be encouraged to use birth-control measures after the birth of their first son.

If given to have as many as female child but preferably one male child How gender balance is going to be same in future. Isn't population of female should be more in future .

I would be thankful if some one can clarify.
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 12 Jan 2017, 02:41
Hi sayantanc2k
as per my understanding ...first two premise "all adults are married" and "avg number is 5" tells nothing about male to female ration currently.
now with successful birth control ,we have two scenarios
1. first child is male child and birth control measures are taken(male:female gets higher)
2. first child is not male child and let us say 4 female and one male(female:male is higher)

B tells the gender balance in future generations will remain as it is at present.
please explain the same.
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New post 12 Jan 2017, 08:18
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mbaprep2016 wrote:
Hi sayantanc2k
as per my understanding ...first two premise "all adults are married" and "avg number is 5" tells nothing about male to female ration currently.
now with successful birth control ,we have two scenarios
1. first child is male child and birth control measures are taken(male:female gets higher)
2. first child is not male child and let us say 4 female and one male(female:male is higher)

B tells the gender balance in future generations will remain as it is at present.
please explain the same.


Let us consider a simplified mathematical model:

The society consists of 16 families:

After 1st round of reproduction: 8 male + 8 female
The families which have a male child stops reproducing. So other 8 families reproduce in the second round - of them 4 male and 4 female are born.
After 2nd round of reproduction: 12 male + 12 female
Similarly after 3rd round: 14 male + 14 female
After, 4th round 15 male and 15 female.

Now this mental experiment can be generalized with n number of families, and it will be seen that after mth round of reproduction, the number of male and female will be same = n/2 + n/4 +... upto m terms.

Moreover as time passes (m increases), the rate at which the increase in no. of child happens goes on decreasing. ( 1st round: increased by 16(n), second round: increased by 8(n/2), 3rd round: increased by (n/4) and so on.

Therefore answer B is correct.
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 12 Jan 2017, 11:30
sayantanc2k wrote:
mbaprep2016 wrote:
Hi sayantanc2k
as per my understanding ...first two premise "all adults are married" and "avg number is 5" tells nothing about male to female ration currently.
now with successful birth control ,we have two scenarios
1. first child is male child and birth control measures are taken(male:female gets higher)
2. first child is not male child and let us say 4 female and one male(female:male is higher)

B tells the gender balance in future generations will remain as it is at present.
please explain the same.


Let us consider a simplified mathematical model:

The society consists of 16 families:

After 1st round of reproduction: 8 male + 8 female
The families which have a male child stops reproducing. So other 8 families reproduce in the second round - of them 4 male and 4 female are born.
After 2nd round of reproduction: 12 male + 12 female
Similarly after 3rd round: 14 male + 14 female
After, 4th round 15 male and 15 female.

Now this mental experiment can be generalized with n number of families, and it will be seen that after mth round of reproduction, the number of male and female will be same = n/2 + n/4 +... upto m terms.

Moreover as time passes (m increases), the rate at which the increase in no. of child happens goes on decreasing. ( 1st round: increased by 16(n), second round: increased by 8(n/2), 3rd round: increased by (n/4) and so on.

Therefore answer B is correct.


I apologies I am still confused , you stared with equal ratio
lets say 16 families
After 1st round of reproduction: 10 male + 6 female
The families which have a male child stops reproducing. So other 6 families reproduce in the second round - and have 6 male.
now ratio will 16 + 6
I am sure I am missing something very important
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#Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 14 Jan 2017, 08:21
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mbaprep2016 wrote:
sayantanc2k wrote:
mbaprep2016 wrote:
Hi sayantanc2k
as per my understanding ...first two premise "all adults are married" and "avg number is 5" tells nothing about male to female ration currently.
now with successful birth control ,we have two scenarios
1. first child is male child and birth control measures are taken(male:female gets higher)
2. first child is not male child and let us say 4 female and one male(female:male is higher)

B tells the gender balance in future generations will remain as it is at present.
please explain the same.


Let us consider a simplified mathematical model:

The society consists of 16 families:

After 1st round of reproduction: 8 male + 8 female
The families which have a male child stops reproducing. So other 8 families reproduce in the second round - of them 4 male and 4 female are born.
After 2nd round of reproduction: 12 male + 12 female
Similarly after 3rd round: 14 male + 14 female
After, 4th round 15 male and 15 female.

Now this mental experiment can be generalized with n number of families, and it will be seen that after mth round of reproduction, the number of male and female will be same = n/2 + n/4 +... upto m terms.

Moreover as time passes (m increases), the rate at which the increase in no. of child happens goes on decreasing. ( 1st round: increased by 16(n), second round: increased by 8(n/2), 3rd round: increased by (n/4) and so on.

Therefore answer B is correct.


I apologies I am still confused , you stared with equal ratio
lets say 16 families
After 1st round of reproduction: 10 male + 6 female
The families which have a male child stops reproducing. So other 6 families reproduce in the second round - and have 6 male.
now ratio will 16 + 6
I am sure I am missing something very important


The assumption is that the probability of getting a male child and that of getting a female child is 1:1. So when 16 families reproduce, 8 males and 8 females are born. Now read the above post. (I did not quite understand how you got 10 males and 6 females after 1st round)

If you still have doubt, please post again.
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Mar 2017, 06:33
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Earlier Tradition : Male children very highly valued.

New Proposal: Couples be encouraged to use birth-control measures after the birth of their first son.

If this proposal is widely accepted in the culture, we may expect that:

A. the rate of population increase will be slowed, and future generations will contain a disproportionately high number of females. How do we know females would be high? It could men who are very high in number. So, Incorrect.

B. the rate of population increase will be slowed, and the gender balance in future generations will remain as it is at present. : Correct.

C. the rate of population growth will remain the same, and future generations will contain a disproportionately high number of females. : No, population growth will obviously change.

D. there will be no significant effect either on population growth or on gender balance. : Really? I don't think so.

E. the population will decline precipitously, because approximately half of all families will have only a single child. :How can we say Half will have only a single child? Too extreme to consider.
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 11 Aug 2017, 02:04
sayantanc2k wrote:

The assumption is that the probability of getting a male child and that of getting a female child is 1:1. So when 16 families reproduce, 8 males and 8 females are born. Now read the above post. (I did not quite understand how you got 10 males and 6 females after 1st round)

If you still have doubt, please post again.


I understand your assumption but I'm still confused.
For example, the probability of getting a head in one toss of a coin is 1/2. That doesn't mean that if I toss a coin 10 times, I will get 5 heads and 5 tails.
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#Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 11 Aug 2017, 11:17
sarathgopinath wrote:
sayantanc2k wrote:

The assumption is that the probability of getting a male child and that of getting a female child is 1:1. So when 16 families reproduce, 8 males and 8 females are born. Now read the above post. (I did not quite understand how you got 10 males and 6 females after 1st round)

If you still have doubt, please post again.


I understand your assumption but I'm still confused.
For example, the probability of getting a head in one toss of a coin is 1/2. That doesn't mean that if I toss a coin 10 times, I will get 5 heads and 5 tails.



This is how I chose (B).

The information is,

Quote:
... this failure is due to these programs ignoring a tradition that values male children very highly, so that every parent wants to have at least one son.


What this means is that, couples keep on conceiving until they have at least one son.

This is important. At least one son implies, one and/or more son(s).

Suppose if a family wants to have two boys, if they are lucky, they could score two in a row (pardon the language).

If they are unlucky, it is like trying to draw the Ace of Spades and Diamonds from a deck of cards under the worst case scenario. You keep on drawing until you get your cards.

This inevitably leads to population explosion.

The proposal is,

Quote:
It is proposed that couples be encouraged to use birth-control measures after the birth of their first son.


Note that the proposal encourages couples to use birth-control after their first son and not child.

What this effectively does, speaking in terms of our earlier example, limits the intended card to just one of either. But, the worst case scenario may still apply, in that couples keep conceiving till they get a male child.

This 'limit' of one male child would definitely reduce the rate of population growth, but the ratio of males to females would still be skewed in favour of females, and, the ratio will remain more or less the same.

This may seem like (A), but since we do not know whether females are actually more than males, we shall go with a blanket statement that covers both cases, which is (B).

Originally posted by Deltabourne on 11 Aug 2017, 11:02.
Last edited by Deltabourne on 11 Aug 2017, 11:17, edited 1 time in total.
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New post 11 Aug 2017, 11:07
Deltabourne wrote:
But, the worst case scenario may still apply, in that couples keep conceiving till they get a male child.
.


With such a worst case being there, how can we be sure that population will decrease?
What if everyone is getting a male child only on the 6th try? (worst case)
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Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married  [#permalink]

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New post 11 Aug 2017, 11:25
sarathgopinath wrote:
Deltabourne wrote:
But, the worst case scenario may still apply, in that couples keep conceiving till they get a male child.
.


With such a worst case being there, how can we be sure that population will decrease?
What if everyone is getting a male child only on the 6th try? (worst case)



The one male child policy will definitely reduce the rate of population growth, because people will try fewer times compared to before when there were no restrictions on how many male children a couple can conceive.

To be clear, this would reduce the number of tries to just 6 (for one child) and not 12 (for two male children).

And the ratio would still remain more or less the same.

Check replies on top. Someone has explained it with 2 cases.
Re: #Top150 CR: In a monogamous culture 100% of the adults are married &nbs [#permalink] 11 Aug 2017, 11:25

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