Let's agree to disagree.
Sorry if my earlier post seemed strong.
Rux10
Sorry, I’m confused about your definition of a ‘true’ business model. If you’re saying that structural barriers to entry define whether a company has a successful or sustainable business model, you need to look at several other aspects of a companies operations to come to that conclusion. You need to factor in brand equity for one.
You also have to detail your criterion for what you consider to be a good business model. ‘’Without high barriers of entry, the ability to make outsized profits in the long run is nil’’ You’re making far too many assumptions here to definitively deduce the future of twitter as an investable entity! A company doesn’t need to make ‘outsized’ profits, year on year for it to be called successful. Depending on the size of the company, its cost structure and competition, increasing revenue by 2% year on year for the next ten years could be considered extremely successful. A business model will be successful if it effectively fills a gap in the market, makes a profit, and satisfies its stakeholders.
With regards to high barriers to entry (in the online services industry) Twitter has some of the best. No one, regardless of the best VC backing on the planet, would take on twitter in its core function from scratch. From a marketing perspective, it has already made it into the lexicon of modern web language. The word ‘tweet’ transcends language, social, and geographical barriers. The company has unbelievable levels of spontaneous brand awareness and over 190 million users! Twitter, Facebook, and Google do not serve the same function. They occupy similar but significantly different niches in the social media landscape. Twitter, Facebook, Google, LinkedIn and a small few other social media sites operate in a very efficient oligopoly. They each serve a function. If there was no need for twitter right now, it wouldn’t be operating as a company.
If anyone could breakdown twitter and facebooks stronghold on social media, you would think Google would be that company. After all, it has the technical and fiscal resources to release the best social networking site of all time. In fact, it had several forrays into this area and failed miserably! Trying to convert 700 million users from two social institutions like Twitter and Facebook is near impossible, regardless of your resourses. Being first to market and getting a user base when it comes to online social media is key. You can't view their business model and barriers to entry the same as you would a bricks and mortar company. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but is your background mainly (and almost exclusively) in finance?
A certain service will be around only for as long as there is a demand for it. Sure Twitter has no physical commodity to sell. But then again neither do Investment Banks. However this doesn’t mean that every bank in the world has a defunct business model that will amount to exactly ‘nil’ in the future - as you put it in your response. Twitter, in a way, has commoditized the ability to send and access news, information,and knowledge instantly through an extensive network…for free.
Sorry for detracting from your OP Jas1414! My opinion is that twitter is cool, but I don't use it to self promote myself or anything like that. I just get the news feeds I like.
I guess we'll have to! Although, as soon as there's an IPO im loading up on the stuff! Thanks for the chat, this stuff it pretty interesting.