Crowding on Mooreville’s subway frequently leads to delays, because it is difficult for passengers to exit from the trains. Over the next ten years, the Mooreville Transit Authority projects that subway ridership will increase by 20 percent. The authority plans to increase the number of daily train trips by only 5 percent over the same period. Officials predict that this increase is sufficient to ensure that the incidence of delays due to crowding does not increase.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds for the officials’ prediction? This question is a Strengthen Plan question.
Expected outcome of the plan:
ensure that the incidence of delays due to crowding does not increase The plan:
increase the number of daily train trips by only 5 percent As is fairly common in Plan questions, the passage doesn't explicitly provide a reason to believe the plan will work.
Rather, it provides a reason to wonder how the plan can work, which is the following:
the Mooreville Transit Authority projects that subway ridership will increase by 20 percentSo, the correct answer will provide reason to believe that a 5 percent increase in train trips will be sufficient for ensuring that the incidence of delays doesn't increase even though ridership will increase by 20 percent.
(A) The population of Mooreville is not expected to increase significantly in the next ten years.This choice is tricky to eliminate because it could seem to indicate that the plan of increasing train trips by 5 percent will work because subway ridership won't increase because the population won't increase.
The issue with that line of reasoning is that the correct answer has to provide grounds for the expectation that the plan will work
even though ridership is expected to increase by 20 percent.
So, this choice doesn't provide grounds for the officials' prediction.
Eliminate.
(B) The Transit Authority also plans a 5 percent increase in the number of bus trips on routes that connect to subways.Adding more bus trips
to the subways won't prevent overcrowding or delays of the subways.
Eliminate.
(C) The Transit Authority projects that the number of Mooreville residents who commute to work by automobile will increase in the next ten years.The fact that the number of people commuting by automobile is expected to increase doesn't change the fact that subway ridership is expected to increase by 20 percent.
So, this choice doesn't provide a reason to believe that a 5 percent increase in train trips will be sufficient for handling a 20 percent increase in ridership.
Eliminate.
(D) Most of the projected increase in ridership is expected to occur in off-peak hours when trains now are sparsely used.This choice is interesting.
After all, if most of the increase in ridership occurs in off-peak hours when trains now are sparsely used, then ridership on crowded subways won't increase much. After all, in that case, the increase in ridership will for the most part result in an increase in the number of riders on uncrowded trains, rather than in increased ridership during peak hours, when trains are crowded.
So, if this choice is true, then an increase of 5 percent in train trips may be sufficient for ensuring that there isn't an increase in crowding or delays.
Keep.
(E) The 5 percent increase in the number of train trips can be achieved without an equal increase in Transit Authority operational costs.This choice supports the wrong prediction.
It supports a prediction along the lines of that the Transit Authority can
afford to increase the number of train trips.
While this choice indicates that the plan may make sense financially, it doesn't provide grounds for the officials' prediction, which is not about finances or whether the plan makes sense in general.
Eliminate.
Correct answer: D