The flaw is correlation doesn't mean causation. Just because the students scored well on the math exam and also enrolled in the chess club, doesn't mean being a part of the club raises your maths skills. It could be true that good mathematicians prefer chess, or that good mathematicians are told by their teachers that chess is vital to sharpening their thinking skills.
(A) isn't flawed. Denying the necessary condition denies the sufficient one as well.
(B) is flawed differently. We don't know how often tech companies survive. They can usually survive 1% of the time and surviving more often could be 30%, but still below 50%, so the conclusion doesn't follow.
(C) is close, but not credited imo, because it talks of absolutes: no evidence, no crop failure and not likelihoods, like the question stem. Here, the method guarantees the result and doesn't contribute a lot to it.
(D) This is the answer I picked. Here we have a correlation that's turned into causation. Probabilities turned into certainty.
(E) is a valid just like A.
Bunuel
School Board Member: A recent study of high school students in our district found that those who participate in the district's after-school chess program scored significantly higher on the State-mandated Essential Skills in Mathematics (ESM) exam than those who do not. District-wide improvements in average ESM scores are vital to retain public support for the district and to increase the competitiveness of our graduates in the job market. Therefore, the district should mandate participation in the chess program for all high school students.
Which of the following arguments exhibits a flaw similar to the flaw in the reasoning above?
(A)
Financial Regulator: Any bank in our country that handles international wire transfers on behalf of their clients must comply with regulations mandating strict data encryption protocols. Meridian National Bank does not currently have the technical ability to encrypt customer data during wire transfers. Therefore, Meridian National Bank cannot legally provide international wire transfers to their customers.
(B)
Tech Journalist: Industry surveys indicate that tech startups that secure venture capital funding within their first year have significantly higher survival rates than startups that do not secure funding in their first year. High survival rates are vital to maintaining a robust innovation sector and driving job growth. Therefore, any tech startup that secures venture capital funding in its first year is very likely to survive.
(C)
Agricultural Advisor: A recent agricultural study found no evidence of crop failure among organic farms that utilized a new predatory wasp species for pest control. Eliminating crop failure is vital to stabilizing food prices and ensuring national food security. Therefore, commercial farming operations can completely eliminate the risk of crop failure by adopting this pest control method.
(D)
Physician: National health data indicates that adults who run in at least one marathon per year have significantly lower rates of heart disease than those who do not. Reducing heart disease is vital because it is a leading cause of death, and its treatment places a massive burden on the healthcare system. Therefore, the government should require all citizens to annually participate in a marathon.
(E)
Vice Principal: At our school, students who want to enroll in calculus must first take pre-calculus, because the principles taught in pre-calculus help prepare students for the more advanced topics taught in calculus. Therefore, any student who has not taken pre-calculus, here or elsewhere, will not be permitted to enroll in calculus.
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