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07 Aug 2026, 12:57
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In response to an alarming increase in the frequency of thefts by pickpockets at Karlarinda’s main airport over the preceding year, Karlarinda’s airport commission posted several large brightly-colored notices in the airport’s most prominent public areas, informing travelers of the recent spate of thefts and warning them to beware of pickpockets. In the months after these notices were posted, the frequency of pickpocketing thefts at Karlarinda’s main airport grew at an even faster rate than before the notices were posted.
Which of the following, if true, best explains the observed statistical effect of the notices posted by Karlarinda’s airport commission?
A. Approximately 40 percent of passengers who fly into or out of Karlarinda’s main airport are unable to read any of the languages in which the notices are written.
B. In the seven years since it abolished all sales taxes on purchases made by non-residents, Karlarinda has become one of the world’s premier luxury shopping destinations.
C. The local police department began regular patrols of the public areas of Karlarinda’s main airport on the day when the warning notices were posted.
D. The tendency of people to physically look or grope for the presence of valuable belongings when they perceive a threat of theft is widespread across all cultures and demographic groups.
E. Upon seeing the notices, many travelers purchased belt packs from the airport’s kiosks that are large enough to hold most valuables and that are worn under the traveler’s clothing.
Which of the following, if true, best explains the observed statistical effect of the notices posted by Karlarinda’s airport commission?
A. Approximately 40 percent of passengers who fly into or out of Karlarinda’s main airport are unable to read any of the languages in which the notices are written.
B. In the seven years since it abolished all sales taxes on purchases made by non-residents, Karlarinda has become one of the world’s premier luxury shopping destinations.
C. The local police department began regular patrols of the public areas of Karlarinda’s main airport on the day when the warning notices were posted.
D. The tendency of people to physically look or grope for the presence of valuable belongings when they perceive a threat of theft is widespread across all cultures and demographic groups.
E. Upon seeing the notices, many travelers purchased belt packs from the airport’s kiosks that are large enough to hold most valuables and that are worn under the traveler’s clothing.
07 Aug 2026, 12:57
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Official Solution:
In response to an alarming increase in the frequency of thefts by pickpockets at Karlarinda’s main airport over the preceding year, Karlarinda’s airport commission posted several large brightly-colored notices in the airport’s most prominent public areas, informing travelers of the recent spate of thefts and warning them to beware of pickpockets. In the months after these notices were posted, the frequency of pickpocketing thefts at Karlarinda’s main airport grew at an even faster rate than before the notices were posted.
Which of the following, if true, best explains the observed statistical effect of the notices posted by Karlarinda’s airport commission?
A. Approximately 40 percent of passengers who fly into or out of Karlarinda’s main airport are unable to read any of the languages in which the notices are written.
B. In the seven years since it abolished all sales taxes on purchases made by non-residents, Karlarinda has become one of the world’s premier luxury shopping destinations.
C. The local police department began regular patrols of the public areas of Karlarinda’s main airport on the day when the warning notices were posted.
D. The tendency of people to physically look or grope for the presence of valuable belongings when they perceive a threat of theft is widespread across all cultures and demographic groups.
E. Upon seeing the notices, many travelers purchased belt packs from the airport’s kiosks that are large enough to hold most valuables and that are worn under the traveler’s clothing.
The “observed statistical effect” of the new warning notices was to accelerate the increase in pickpocketing thefts at the airport where the notices were posted. The answer choice that credibly explains how the posting of “beware of pickpockets” signs could lead to MORE pickpocketing thefts will be the correct answer to the problem.
That’s choice (D). If the tendency of people to instinctually look or grab at the physical location of their valuables is widespread across every single culture or demographic on Earth, then it will also be widespread among travelers at this airport. If that’s the case, then, inevitably, large numbers of people will stare or grab at the pockets, bags, or other locations where they’re carrying their valuables as soon as they read the new warning signs and thus giving away the precise location of their most valuable belongings to anyone nearby who might be watching, pickpockets included. Choice (D) therefore explains a way in which the new warning notices could inadvertently make pickpocketing thefts much easier to commit, which in turn would explain the faster growth rate of those thefts after the notices were put up.
INCORRECT ANSWERS:
(A) This statement implies that 60 percent of travelers at Karlarinda’s main airport CAN read the signs, meaning that the signs have the potential to affect the behavior of up to three out of every five travelers. That’s certainly a large enough proportion to influence aggregate statistics, but this choice doesn’t offer any insight into how the notices might affect those travelers’ behavior or why, so it’s irrelevant.
(B) If Karlarinda has built itself into a prime luxury shopping destination especially for nonresident travelers, then it’s quite likely that large numbers of passengers departing from Karlarinda will carry expensive goods through the airport - quite the prize for thieves, and certainly capable of explaining a high rate of criminal theft or a high average value of the goods stolen. But the statistical observations we need to explain here are about an accelerating increase in thefts, not about high absolute quantities of thefts or high-value stolen goods. The original increase took place over one year and the accelerated increase was observed over a period of months, so the commercial transformation of Karlarinda described in choice (B) a seven-year process cannot possibly explain either of those phases.
(C) An increased police presence typically deters crime, so the only plausible statistical effect of choice (C) would be to slow, stop, or possibly even reverse the foregoing increase in thefts at the airport. There is no feasible mechanism by which stepped-up police patrols would cause thefts to proliferate, so this is a wrong-way answer.
(E) Concealing valuables in a belt that goes inside one’s clothes makes them essentially impossible for pickpockets to steal, so, insofar as choice (E) might have any statistical effect at all, it should lower theft rates by some increment. There is no plausible way in which the introduction of these concealed belt bags could possibly catalyze or facilitate more pickpocketing thefts, so this is another wrong-way answer. (Moreover, there is no way to tell whether the group of people represented here as "Many travelers" is large enough to have detectable effects on aggregate crime rates.)
Answer: D
In response to an alarming increase in the frequency of thefts by pickpockets at Karlarinda’s main airport over the preceding year, Karlarinda’s airport commission posted several large brightly-colored notices in the airport’s most prominent public areas, informing travelers of the recent spate of thefts and warning them to beware of pickpockets. In the months after these notices were posted, the frequency of pickpocketing thefts at Karlarinda’s main airport grew at an even faster rate than before the notices were posted.
Which of the following, if true, best explains the observed statistical effect of the notices posted by Karlarinda’s airport commission?
A. Approximately 40 percent of passengers who fly into or out of Karlarinda’s main airport are unable to read any of the languages in which the notices are written.
B. In the seven years since it abolished all sales taxes on purchases made by non-residents, Karlarinda has become one of the world’s premier luxury shopping destinations.
C. The local police department began regular patrols of the public areas of Karlarinda’s main airport on the day when the warning notices were posted.
D. The tendency of people to physically look or grope for the presence of valuable belongings when they perceive a threat of theft is widespread across all cultures and demographic groups.
E. Upon seeing the notices, many travelers purchased belt packs from the airport’s kiosks that are large enough to hold most valuables and that are worn under the traveler’s clothing.
The “observed statistical effect” of the new warning notices was to accelerate the increase in pickpocketing thefts at the airport where the notices were posted. The answer choice that credibly explains how the posting of “beware of pickpockets” signs could lead to MORE pickpocketing thefts will be the correct answer to the problem.
That’s choice (D). If the tendency of people to instinctually look or grab at the physical location of their valuables is widespread across every single culture or demographic on Earth, then it will also be widespread among travelers at this airport. If that’s the case, then, inevitably, large numbers of people will stare or grab at the pockets, bags, or other locations where they’re carrying their valuables as soon as they read the new warning signs and thus giving away the precise location of their most valuable belongings to anyone nearby who might be watching, pickpockets included. Choice (D) therefore explains a way in which the new warning notices could inadvertently make pickpocketing thefts much easier to commit, which in turn would explain the faster growth rate of those thefts after the notices were put up.
INCORRECT ANSWERS:
(A) This statement implies that 60 percent of travelers at Karlarinda’s main airport CAN read the signs, meaning that the signs have the potential to affect the behavior of up to three out of every five travelers. That’s certainly a large enough proportion to influence aggregate statistics, but this choice doesn’t offer any insight into how the notices might affect those travelers’ behavior or why, so it’s irrelevant.
(B) If Karlarinda has built itself into a prime luxury shopping destination especially for nonresident travelers, then it’s quite likely that large numbers of passengers departing from Karlarinda will carry expensive goods through the airport - quite the prize for thieves, and certainly capable of explaining a high rate of criminal theft or a high average value of the goods stolen. But the statistical observations we need to explain here are about an accelerating increase in thefts, not about high absolute quantities of thefts or high-value stolen goods. The original increase took place over one year and the accelerated increase was observed over a period of months, so the commercial transformation of Karlarinda described in choice (B) a seven-year process cannot possibly explain either of those phases.
(C) An increased police presence typically deters crime, so the only plausible statistical effect of choice (C) would be to slow, stop, or possibly even reverse the foregoing increase in thefts at the airport. There is no feasible mechanism by which stepped-up police patrols would cause thefts to proliferate, so this is a wrong-way answer.
(E) Concealing valuables in a belt that goes inside one’s clothes makes them essentially impossible for pickpockets to steal, so, insofar as choice (E) might have any statistical effect at all, it should lower theft rates by some increment. There is no plausible way in which the introduction of these concealed belt bags could possibly catalyze or facilitate more pickpocketing thefts, so this is another wrong-way answer. (Moreover, there is no way to tell whether the group of people represented here as "Many travelers" is large enough to have detectable effects on aggregate crime rates.)
Answer: D
15 Aug 2026, 11:48
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I don’t quite agree with the solution. "If that’s the case, then, inevitably, large numbers of people will stare or grab at the pockets, bags, or other locations where they’re carrying their valuables as soon as they read the new warning signs—thus giving away the precise location of their most valuable belongings to anyone nearby who might be watching, pickpockets included." - this seems too far-fetched imo!
