Official Solution:
A pharmaceutical company recently completed a 12-week clinical trial of a new painkiller, in which nearly all patients completed the full dosing schedule without interruption. A researcher analyzing the results concluded that the drug had provided little meaningful relief to patients, pointing to data showing that the average reduction in pain scores across the full course of the trial was only modest.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the researcher's conclusion?
A. Among patients who entered the trial with the highest initial pain scores, average reductions by the end of the study were greater than those observed in patients who began with only mild or moderate pain.
B. Patients who adhered to the prescribed dosing schedule without interruption reported substantially greater pain reductions than those who missed at least one dose during the trial.
C. Patients who were given a placebo rather than the drug reported similarly modest reductions in pain scores over the same 12-week period.
D. Pain score reductions among patients in the trial were negligible during the first eight weeks but accelerated sharply in the final four weeks as the drug reached its full therapeutic concentration in the bloodstream.
E. The chronic pain condition targeted by the drug is one for which all currently available treatments have historically produced only modest average reductions in standardized pain scores.
The researcher concludes that the drug provided little meaningful relief, based on the fact that the average reduction in pain scores across the full 12-week trial was only modest. To undermine this conclusion, the correct answer must show that the average does not accurately reflect the drug's impact.
(A) Incorrect. This shows that patients with higher initial pain scores improved more than those with lower scores - a difference across patient severity rather than across time. Even granting this, the overall average across all patients was still modest, and the researcher's conclusion applies to the drug's general effectiveness. This choice does not directly address whether the average conceals a meaningful effect.
(B) Incorrect. This points to non-compliant patients dragging down the average. But the trial records establish that nearly all patients completed the full dosing schedule, so missed doses cannot account for the modest average. With adherence essentially universal, the modest result reflects the drug’s effect on patients who took it as prescribed.
(C) Incorrect. If placebo patients showed similarly modest reductions, this strengthens the researcher's conclusion rather than undermining it. It suggests the drug produced no benefit beyond what patients experienced without it.
(D) Correct. If pain reductions were negligible for the first eight weeks but accelerated sharply in the final four weeks, the overall average across all 12 weeks would be modest - but that average conceals the drug's true impact. The sharp acceleration in the final weeks represents meaningful relief, and it is precisely this late-stage effect that the modest average obscures. The researcher's data is accurate, but interpreting the 12-week average as evidence of little relief misrepresents what the trial actually showed.
(E) Incorrect. This contextualizes the modest result by noting that other treatments for the same condition also produce modest averages. But this does not undermine the researcher's conclusion - it merely suggests that modest results are typical. The researcher's claim that the drug provided little meaningful relief remains intact regardless of how other treatments have performed.
Answer: D