Dropwindsondes give wind data from flight level down to the surface. Using lots of these data, forecasters use typical conversion rules (near the eyewall, surface winds are about 90 percent of flight level winds; in the outer reaches, about 78 percent). Hurricane Mitch shows those typical rules can fail in real time because a storm can weaken from the top down, so flight level winds can drop before surface winds do.
1. The passage most strongly suggests that circulation in hurricanes(A) weakens at the eyewall before it begins to weaken in the outer reaches of a storm
The passage never compares where weakening starts inside the storm, so this is not supported.
(B) near the outer reaches is typically strongest at elevations above the usual flight level of reconnaissance aircraft
The passage says outer reach wind maximums are at higher elevations, but it does not say higher than the 10,000 foot flight level.
(C) is typically the same from flight level down to surface level before the hurricane begins to weaken
This conflicts with the passage’s typical conversion rules (surface is about 90 percent or 78 percent of flight level), which imply the levels are usually not the same.
(D) is usually faster at flight level than it is at surface level after a storm has begun to weaken
This best matches the “typical estimate” idea: forecasters normally treat surface winds as less than flight level winds. Mitch is presented as an exception that requires adjustment because the storm weakened
from the top down.
(E) will not increase if sea surface temperatures remain constant
Sea surface temperature is mentioned as a factor for adjusting estimates, not as a guarantee that circulation cannot increase.
Answer: (D)
2. The passage is primarily concerned with(A) describing various competing methods by which hurricane forecasters judge the accuracy of typical estimates of surface level wind speeds
There are not multiple competing methods being compared.
(B) describing a method forecasters use to estimate surface level wind speeds in hurricanes, while emphasizing that these estimates will sometimes require revision
This is exactly the structure: typical rules from dropwindsondes, then Mitch as a reminder that
real time factors can require modification.
(C) explaining why it is that wind speeds vary according to altitude and position relative to the eyewall within a hurricane
It mentions variation, but mainly to justify how forecasters estimate surface winds.
(D) explaining why advances in real time data collection have precluded the need to estimate surface level wind speeds in hurricanes
Opposite: the passage says estimates still get used, and sometimes need adjustment.
(E) arguing that forecasters’ estimates of surface level wind speeds in hurricanes tend to be accurate despite the limitations of data collected from reconnaissance aircraft
Opposite: it says typical estimates often need modification.
Answer: (B)
3. Suppose that the windows on the top floor of a thirty story building will shatter in 200 mile per hour winds. Under which circumstance would the windows be most likely to break?(A) Outer reaches, surface level winds reach 180
The passage gives no rule that top floor winds in the outer reaches are 20 higher than ground, so this does not reliably reach 200.
(B) Outer reaches, flight level winds reach 200
Typical surface there is about 78 percent of flight level, about 156, and again no stated top floor boost in the outer reaches.
(C) Eyewall, surface level winds reach 150
Top floor is about 20 higher than ground near the eyewall, so about 170, below 200.
(D) Eyewall, flight level winds reach 200
Typical eyewall surface is about 90 percent of flight level, about 180, and top floor near the eyewall is about 20 higher than ground, so about 200, which hits the shatter threshold.
(E) Eyewall, winds at 1,600 feet reach 200
Near the eyewall, 1,600 foot winds are about 20 percent stronger than flight level, so a 1,600 foot wind of 200 implies flight level is lower (about 167), making surface about 150 and top floor about 170, below 200.
Answer: (D)