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Quote:
3. Suppose that the windows on the top floor of a thirty-story building will shatter in 200 mile-per- hour winds. Under which of the following circumstances does the passage suggest that the windows would be most likely to break?

A. The building is in the outer reaches of a hurricane when surface-level winds reach 180 miles per hour.
B. The building is in the outer reaches of a hurricane when flight-level winds reach 200 miles per hour.
C. The building is in the eyewall of a hurricane when surface-level winds reach 150 miles per hour.
D. The building is in the eyewall of a hurricane when flight-level winds reach 200 miles per hour.
E. The building is in the eyewall of a hurricane when winds at 1,600 feet reach 200 miles per hour.
A. Building is in outer reaches when surface level winds reach 180.

From the passage, let's find out about outer area speed and what's it relation at various heights.

Quote:
estimate eyewall surface-level winds at about 90 percent of flight-level winds, with surface-level winds in the outer reaches at about 78 percent.
So, outer area speeds at surface level it is approximately 80% of speeds at flight level which is 10000 feet.
At 10000 feet outer area speeds would be around 180/0.8 = 225.
So, in the outer area, wind speeds vary from 225 at 10000 feet to 180 at surface level. So, outer speed should be 200 at around 5000 feet (midway between flight and surface level). Building with 30 floors (basic world knowledge can be used to estimate that per story height can be around 10-15 feet, so 30 story < 500 feet) is much closer to the surface than 10000 feet. So, building should not be hit with 200 speed outer winds. Most likely reject, but keep in mind in case we don't get a better answer, this might be the one we will pick as the building at least falls in the 180-225 speed range.

B. Outer area speed is 200 at flight level.
Using same information as above we can see that the wind speed is going to be lesser than 200 at the building and surface level. Not enough to break windows.

C. Eyewall speed at surface is 150.
Using same information as in option A, we can figure out that at flight level, eyewall speeds are approximately 150/0.9 = 167.
But the passage tells us another information about eyewall speeds:
Quote:
Near the eyewall the strongest winds are usually found at around 1,600 feet, about 20 percent stronger than at flight level.
So, at 1600 feet, eyewall is strongest = 167 + 20% = 200.
But if it's maximum is 200 at 1600 feet (height of a 30-story building < 500 feet) and at surface it is 150, then at 30 story level it will be lesser than 200 - not enough to break windows.

D. Eyewall speed is 200 at flight level.
Max is at 1600 feet = 200 + 20% = 240, at surface it is 200 * 0.9 = 180.
If building is around 500 feet, then building's height is around 1/3rd of 1600 feet. Wind loses speed of 60 between 1600 to 0 feet, so at 1/3rd height, it will lose 2/3rd speed i.e. 40. So, at around 1/3rd height, speed of wind = 240 - 40 = 200. Enough to break windows - should be our answer.

E. Eyewall speed is 200 at 1600 feet. This is the max speed. At building level or surface level, the eyewall speed will be much lesser. Not enough.

Between A and D, D has a range of 240 to 180 at 1600 feet to surface respectively, while A has a range of 225 to 180 at 10000 feet to surface respectively.
D is more likely to have winds at around 200 or more at 500 feet height. Maybe drawing it out will help visualise it better - 4 height levels (10000, 1600, 500, and 0) and speeds marked for various scenarios.

Answer D.
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1.D

[Wind is usually faster at flight level than it is at surface level] [BEFORE a storm has begun to weaken].

Forecasters typically estimate eyewall surface-level winds at about 90 percent of flight-level winds, with surface-level winds in the outer reaches at about 78 percent.
So wind is usually faster at flight level than it is at surface level.

Mitch appeared to be weakening from the top down.
So it should be BEFORE a storm has begun to weaken. After the storm has begun to weaken, the wind at flight level is slower than wind at surface level.


3.

Near eyewall wind speed:
10k feet (flight level): x
1.6k feet: 1.2x
0.3k feet - 0.45k feet (30 floor): 0.9x + 20
0 feet (surface level): 0.9x

In the outer reaches:
10k feet (flight level): y
0 feet (surface level): 0.78y

So:
A. unknown
B. unknown
C. 20 + 150 = 170
D. 200 * 0.9 + 20 = 200
E. 200 / 1.2 * 0.9 + 20 = 170
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KarishmaB MartyMurray While i understood the passage, i had difficulty understanding, why the FINDING 4 contradicts the FINDING 1 &2?

PARA1:

Topic: Difficulty determining maximum surface-level winds.

Usual Method to determine: Reconnaissance aircraft obtain data from a flight level of 10,000 feet.

A different method in 1997: aircraft deployed SOME INSTRUMENT in hurricanes.

GOAL: acquire detailed data from flight level down to surface level.

INSTRUMENTS FINDINGS:

1. Near the eyewall— the strongest winds are usually at around 1,600 feet. These Strong winds are about 20 percent stronger than at flight level.

2. In the hurricanes' OUTER REACHES - wind maximums are typically found at higher elevations.

3. Near the eyewall: Winds average about 20 mph stronger than at ground level.

4. Forecasters typically estimate eyewall surface-level winds at about 90 percent of flight-level winds, with surface-level winds in the outer reaches at about 78 percent.

PARA2:

Some discrepancy, but typical estimates often need modification based on certain real-time factors
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Dropwindsondes give wind data from flight level down to the surface. Using lots of these data, forecasters use typical conversion rules (near the eyewall, surface winds are about 90 percent of flight level winds; in the outer reaches, about 78 percent). Hurricane Mitch shows those typical rules can fail in real time because a storm can weaken from the top down, so flight level winds can drop before surface winds do.

1. The passage most strongly suggests that circulation in hurricanes

(A) weakens at the eyewall before it begins to weaken in the outer reaches of a storm

The passage never compares where weakening starts inside the storm, so this is not supported.

(B) near the outer reaches is typically strongest at elevations above the usual flight level of reconnaissance aircraft

The passage says outer reach wind maximums are at higher elevations, but it does not say higher than the 10,000 foot flight level.

(C) is typically the same from flight level down to surface level before the hurricane begins to weaken

This conflicts with the passage’s typical conversion rules (surface is about 90 percent or 78 percent of flight level), which imply the levels are usually not the same.

(D) is usually faster at flight level than it is at surface level after a storm has begun to weaken

This best matches the “typical estimate” idea: forecasters normally treat surface winds as less than flight level winds. Mitch is presented as an exception that requires adjustment because the storm weakened from the top down.

(E) will not increase if sea surface temperatures remain constant

Sea surface temperature is mentioned as a factor for adjusting estimates, not as a guarantee that circulation cannot increase.

Answer: (D)


2. The passage is primarily concerned with

(A) describing various competing methods by which hurricane forecasters judge the accuracy of typical estimates of surface level wind speeds

There are not multiple competing methods being compared.

(B) describing a method forecasters use to estimate surface level wind speeds in hurricanes, while emphasizing that these estimates will sometimes require revision

This is exactly the structure: typical rules from dropwindsondes, then Mitch as a reminder that real time factors can require modification.

(C) explaining why it is that wind speeds vary according to altitude and position relative to the eyewall within a hurricane

It mentions variation, but mainly to justify how forecasters estimate surface winds.

(D) explaining why advances in real time data collection have precluded the need to estimate surface level wind speeds in hurricanes

Opposite: the passage says estimates still get used, and sometimes need adjustment.

(E) arguing that forecasters’ estimates of surface level wind speeds in hurricanes tend to be accurate despite the limitations of data collected from reconnaissance aircraft

Opposite: it says typical estimates often need modification.

Answer: (B)


3. Suppose that the windows on the top floor of a thirty story building will shatter in 200 mile per hour winds. Under which circumstance would the windows be most likely to break?

(A) Outer reaches, surface level winds reach 180

The passage gives no rule that top floor winds in the outer reaches are 20 higher than ground, so this does not reliably reach 200.

(B) Outer reaches, flight level winds reach 200

Typical surface there is about 78 percent of flight level, about 156, and again no stated top floor boost in the outer reaches.

(C) Eyewall, surface level winds reach 150

Top floor is about 20 higher than ground near the eyewall, so about 170, below 200.

(D) Eyewall, flight level winds reach 200

Typical eyewall surface is about 90 percent of flight level, about 180, and top floor near the eyewall is about 20 higher than ground, so about 200, which hits the shatter threshold.

(E) Eyewall, winds at 1,600 feet reach 200

Near the eyewall, 1,600 foot winds are about 20 percent stronger than flight level, so a 1,600 foot wind of 200 implies flight level is lower (about 167), making surface about 150 and top floor about 170, below 200.

Answer: (D)
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Tucky
KarishmaB MartyMurray While i understood the passage, i had difficulty understanding, why the FINDING 4 contradicts the FINDING 1 &2?

PARA1:

Topic: Difficulty determining maximum surface-level winds.

Usual Method to determine: Reconnaissance aircraft obtain data from a flight level of 10,000 feet.

A different method in 1997: aircraft deployed SOME INSTRUMENT in hurricanes.

GOAL: acquire detailed data from flight level down to surface level.

INSTRUMENTS FINDINGS:

1. Near the eyewall— the strongest winds are usually at around 1,600 feet. These Strong winds are about 20 percent stronger than at flight level.

2. In the hurricanes' OUTER REACHES - wind maximums are typically found at higher elevations.

3. Near the eyewall: Winds average about 20 mph stronger than at ground level.

4. Forecasters typically estimate eyewall surface-level winds at about 90 percent of flight-level winds, with surface-level winds in the outer reaches at about 78 percent.

PARA2:

Some discrepancy, but typical estimates often need modification based on certain real-time factors


Here is the contradiction:

Para1: Given the collective dropwindsonde data, forecasters typically estimate eyewall surface-level winds at about 90 percent of flight-level winds, with surface-level winds in the outer reaches at about 78 percent.

So surface level winds (at 0 feet) are slower than flight level (10,000 feet) by 10% at eyewall and by 22% in the outer reaches.

Para 2: Hurricane Mitch in 1998, however, exhibited maximum flight-level winds no stronger than 150 miles per hour, yet dropwindsondes indicated much stronger surface-level winds.

In this case, surface level winds were much stronger than flight level winds.
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