Psychologist: We asked 100 entrepreneurs and 100 business managers to

Question

Psychologist: We asked 100 entrepreneurs and 100 business managers to answer various questions and rate how confident they were that their responses were correct. While members of each group were overconfident, in general the entrepreneurs were much more so than the business managers. This indicates that people who are especially overconfident are more likely to attempt to start a business in spite of the enormous odds against success than people who are less confident.

Which one of the following, if true, lends the most support to the psychologist’s conclusion?

(A) The questions asked of the entrepreneurs and business managers included personal, political, and business questions.

(B) At least some of the entrepreneurs surveyed had accurately determined before attempting to start their businesses what the odds were against their attempts being successful.

(C) Another survey showed that degree of confidence was highly correlated with success in business.

(D) The business managers who were most overconfident were found to have attempted to start businesses in the past.

(E) How confident each person surveyed was that his or her answers to the questions asked were correct corresponded closely to that person’s confidence in his or her business acumen.

Abhishek009 · Answer

1. Survey conducted on equal no of Entrepreneurs and Business managers to rate their confidence level.

2. Entrepreneurs > Business Managers

3. Overconfident People start Business

This indicates that people who are especially overconfident are more likely to attempt to start a business in spite of the enormous odds against success than people who are less confident  <----------  We need to support / strengthen this statement.

Which one of the following, if true, lends the most support to the psychologist’s conclusion?

(A)The questions asked of the entrepreneurs and business managers included personal, political, and business questions.

Out of scope.

(B)At least some of the entrepreneurs surveyed had accurately determined before attempting to start their businesses what the odds were against their attempts being successful.

Irrelevant

(C) Another survey  showed that degree of confidence was highly correlated with success in business.

Out of Scope

(D)The business managers who were most overconfident were found to have attempted to start businesses in the past.

Supports the Conclusion - Can be a probable contender

(E)How confident each person surveyed was that his or her answers to the questions asked were correct corresponded closely to that person’s confidence in his or her business acumen.

Wordy

Thus (D) seems to be better than the others ...

gmat6nplus1 · Answer

I chose D as well for POE; why should the success of managers' previous ventures help to demonstrate that confident people are more likely going to start a business? Perhaps working as a manager is considered to be a business itself? I was thinking about small businesses such as local shops and I was associating managers with big corporations -which they may not own.

what do you think?

Abhishek009 · Answer

Extremely sorry it was a Typo , the answer according to my logic will be D

Given the statement we gotta strengthen the conclusion that  " overconfident are more likely to attempt to start a business "  ...

We have the information given here which states that Overconfident People are  " ...more likely to attempt to start a business in spite of the enormous odds against success .... "

To support this statement we have to show something which supports it , past history about such behaviour to my logic supports the statement..

gmat6nplus1 · Answer

Don't worry my friend, I wasn't pointing that out it was glaring from your reasoning that you were talking about answer choice D.
I will brainstorm on this one in the morning, fresh brain should help.

"may the odds be in your favor."

aviram · Answer

The argument is postulating a correlation between confidence and entrepreneurship (starting a business). The study's findings establish that the entrepreneurs were more confident than the managers and concludes that it must be so that confident people attempt to start a business. Answer D strengthens this correlation by saying that the confident amongst the business managers were also people who attempted to start a business in the past (its not about the success of the business, it is about the attempt), lending support to the correlation posited in the argument.

pkm9995 · Answer

I chose D because It is mentioned that entrepreneur is more confident than the business manager and in order to own a business one should have overconfidence. A person is entrepreneur because he owns a business and he has overconfidence. so if a manager has attempted to start business he has entrepreneurial traits which means he should have overconfidence.

rava · Answer

The psychologist says that overconfident persons are more likely to be entrepreneurs (i.e. would have attempted to start a business).
D strongly supports this by showing that the most overconfident amongst the business managers had in fact been entrepreneurs earlier!

All other answers are irrelevant. E is somewhat close, but it talks about confidence in one's business acumen than general confidence (the latter is what the psychologist tries to correlate with the chances of starting a business)

vishnu440 · Answer

is it for sure that business managers were entrepreneurs earlier?

sayantanc2k · Answer

Could not understand your query. Could you elaborate?

Option D states that the most overconfident business managers attempted to start business, i.e. tried to be entrepreneurs; not all business managers tried to be entrepreneurs before, but the overconfident ones did........ Is this the clarification you are asking for ?

sudhirgupta93 · Answer

Can someone please explain what's wrong with E? I was battling between D and E but went with E because it related confidence on answers with confidence on business sense. Higher the confidence in answers. higher the confidence in business sense and thus despite odds over confident people would venture into the business.

abrakadabra21 · Answer

A ~ what kind of ques asked does nt indicate anything abt characterstics of entrepreneur.

C~ just opp of the premises..ques given that odds of sucess against entrepreneur

D imo correct

Sent from my Moto G (4) using  GMAT Club Forum mobile app

Ranasaymon · Answer

I was stuck between option D and E.I eliminated option E as it discusses about general people. We are only concerned with entrepreneurs and business manager.

Is my reasoning correct?

Posted from my mobile device

Kanika3agg · Answer

Psychologist: We asked 100 entrepreneurs and 100 business managers to answer various questions and rate how confident they were that their responses were correct. While members of each group were overconfident, in general the entrepreneurs were much more so than the business managers. This indicates that people who are especially overconfident are more likely to attempt to start a business in spite of the enormous odds against success than people who are less confident.

Which one of the following, if true, lends the most support to the psychologist’s conclusion?

Conclusion - People who are overconfident are more likely to attempt to start a business.
Premise - Entrepreneurs were overconfident to believe that they were right compared to business managers.
Reasoning - If people are overconfident then they are more likely to take a risk despite enormous odds. So, this shows causality.
Pre-thinking - What if there is other reason for the aptitude of risk in entrepreneur? Other factor
What if they are entrepreneurs and therefore more overconfident? Reverse causality

ACE
(A) The questions asked of the entrepreneurs and business managers included personal, political, and business questions. - Out of scope

(B) At least some of the entrepreneurs surveyed had accurately determined before attempting to start their businesses what the odds were against their attempts being successful. - Even if some of the entrepreneurs had determined, it still doesnt affect our conclusion because they still had the overconfidence to start a business.

(C) Another survey showed that degree of confidence was highly correlated with success in business. - This talks about the degree of confidence one might have after starting a business. Doesnt affect the reason for starting the business.

(D) The business managers who were most overconfident were found to have attempted to start businesses in the past. - This gives another example of how business was started by other group of people because of overconfidence. This strengthens our causality.

(E) How confident each person surveyed was that his or her answers to the questions asked were correct corresponded closely to that person’s confidence in his or her business acumen. - So, confidence in business acumen -> confidence of right answers. Then argument becomes the business managers have less confidence in their business acumen than entrepreneurs. So, still the argument remains that entrepreneurs are more overconfident in their business acumen. Does this affect our conclusion that overconfidence leads to risk taking abilities. Not really.

This is a causal strengthener relationship where answers most commonly lies in these groups:-
- Example of if x, then y.
- Statements where other causes are removed for the stated effect
- Statements where reverse causality is removed.
- Statements where Data used is correct.

CrackverbalGMAT · Answer

Hi

Let me try to address your query.

Option (E) does not talk about people in general, but only about the entrepreneurs and business managers who were surveyed. An examination of the option makes this clear:

(E) How confident  each person surveyed  was that his or her answers to the questions asked were correct corresponded closely to that person’s confidence in his or her business acumen.

Option (E) is incorrect because it does not impact the conclusion drawn in the stimulus in any way - that "people who are especially overconfident are more likely to attempt to start a business in spite of the enormous odds against success than people who are less confident"

If people more confident in their business acumen were more confident of their responses (as per option (E)) to the survey questions, it does not make it more likely that overconfident people are more likely to start a business. Option (D) makes a much more compelling case. If even business managers who had earlier started their own businesses were more confident of their responses that other business managers, this draws a causal link between confidence and starting a business.

Hope this helps.

Mavisdu1017 · Answer

Hi expert,
I was stuck between D and E since I think they are the same meaning but just in different expression.

E means: the more confident on their answers to the questions, the more confident on their business acumen(=the more likely to attempt to start a business)---> that can strengthen the conclusion "people who are overconfident are more likely to attempt to start a business"

Pls the expert correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks in advance

AndrewN · Answer

Hello,  Mavisdu1017 . It seems as though you and about twenty percent of members in general, based on timer data as of this writing, are falling into making an  assumption  that  business acumen  is necessarily related to starting a business.  Acumen  is synonymous with skill, and although it might take skill in business matters to start a business, one can possess business acumen and never think to start a business: a highly effective but risk-averse manager of an established business, for instance.

We can rule out answer choice (E) because it correlates confidence in correct answers to a survey with confidence in skills related to business—again, that is business in general. Choice (D) correctly correlates   overconfidence   with   attempts to start a business  , just as the conclusion does:

people who are especially overconfident  are  more likely to attempt to start a business

Answer choices (D) and (E) might share a surface similarity—they both relate to confidence and business—but the  action  of starting a business is mentioned in (D) only, and that is why it is the answer to the question.

Good luck with your studies.

- Andrew

Psychologist: We asked 100 entrepreneurs and 100 business managers to

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