Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees

Question

Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in Brazil, there was an unusually meager harvest of cacao beans this year. The wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future. As a result, the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.
 
The answer to which of the following questions would provide information relevant to evaluating the argument above?
 
A Has the price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter remained steady during other periods of poor harvest?
B Are consumers willing to spend more for chocolate?
C Have the prices of other ingredients in chocolate decreased recently?
D What percentage of cacao trees in Brazil were affected by the fungus?
E Can the fungus be eliminated within the next six months?

Bunuel · Accepted Answer

OFFICIAL EXPLANATION

The correct answer is C.

The conclusion of the argument is that the price of chocolate will increase within six months. The basis for that claim is that the wholesale price of cocoa has increased. However, if the price of other ingredients in the chocolate has dropped, the decrease could offset the higher price of cocoa and render the argument invalid.  The only choice to address this is C.

Caeser · Answer

A Has the price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter remained steady during other periods of poor harvest?
 This information is not relevant as the argument is relevant for the current period of poor harvest.

B Are consumers willing to spend more for chocolate?
 Even if the consumers are not willing the price of the chocolate can still rise because of the rise in ingredients' cost. 
 
C Have the prices of other ingredients in chocolate decreased recently?
 Correct: the price of other ingredients of the chocolate directly impacted the final cost of the chocolate. If the price of the other ingredients is decreasing and will offset the increase in any specific ingredient then the price of the chocolate will not rise. 
 
D What percentage of cacao trees in Brazil were affected by the fungus?
 Out of scope; we already know that due to whatever percentage of cacao trees were affected, the price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased.

E Can the fungus be eliminated within the next six months?
 Irrelevant, doesn't have any impact on current year's produce.

daboo343 · Answer

Here we need to evaluate whether the price of chocolate will definitely increase
Consider the options
A) let us take this option to two extremes.  Yes the price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter remained steady during other periods of poor harvest. Or No the price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter remained steady during other periods of poor harvest 
After taking the option to two extreme we come to know that it doesn't affect the conclusion
Hence A is not possible.
Do the same for options B,D, and E. All these three options will not affect the argument.
Now consider option C and take it to two extremes
 Yes he prices of other ingredients in chocolate decreased recently. Or no he prices of other ingredients in chocolate decreased recently 
Now from this we can easily conclude it affects the argument in both was. In one extreme it is saying that the price of chocolate will definitely increase and in other extreme is is saying that price of chocolate will not increase.
Hence  C  is correct

abhishekdadarwal2009 · Answer

A Has the price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter remained steady during other periods of poor harvest?
 The argument clearly explains that the proces of the cocoa solids and the cocoa butter are increased significantly ther for ther is no use of checking th past history for the cocoa prices.

B Are consumers willing to spend more for chocolate?
 the willingness of the customers is irrelevant because the price of the chocolate is increased because of the low harvest and not to maximize profits,so even if The consumenrs are not willing to pay more the prices hae to be increased because the increase in the price of the raw material.

C Have the prices of other ingredients in chocolate decreased recently?
 the prices of the other ingredients in the manufaturing of the chocolate is important as the raw material requred to manufature the chocolate are importnat in determining the price of the chocolate.if the proces of the raw material is low then the increased price of the cocoa can be compensated and the prices of chocalte can be moderated while of the price of the other ingredients increase or even remain the same then the price of the chocolate will increase .therfor this is the right choice.

D What percentage of cacao trees in Brazil were affected by the fungus?
 The determination of percentage of affected trees is not helpful as its already stated that the prices is increased.

E Can the fungus be eliminated within the next six months?
 The fungus if eleminated in the next six months does not make the hrvest to increase within the 6 months as the current harvest is already spoiled and will not recover within 6 months.

arvind910619 · Answer

Imo C 
   The important point with evaluate the argument question is that they may contain some options with the some information that is repeated .
We have to always look for choices that give new information regarding the argument in order to evaluate it correctly .   
Here also A and D repeat the information form the passage .
Option E does not have any impact whatsoever on the argument .
Even if the fungus is controlled in 6 months , we can not be certain that it will lead to increase in production in cocoa in the current period .

KeyurJoshi · Answer

Fungus => killed cacao trees => meager harvest of cacao => wholesale $ of cocoa solid/butter increased
Conclusion: Retail $ of chocolate will increase in the next 6 months

The answer to which of the following questions would provide information relevant to evaluating the argument above?

A Has the price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter remained steady during other periods of poor harvest?
Other periods of harvest CANNOT impact current timeline.

B Are consumers willing to spend more for chocolate?
Even if this is true, this does not impact the conclusion that prices will increase.

C Have the prices of other ingredients in chocolate decreased recently?
Say, Prices of coco solid/butter increased from $10 to $14
Price of chocolate before = $20 (Cocoa = $10 + Milk = $5 + Sugar = $5)
Price of chocolate now = $20 (Cocoa = $14 + Milk = $3 + Sugar = $3)
So prices are same, conclusion doesnt stand

D What percentage of cacao trees in Brazil were affected by the fungus?
1% were killed by fungus = 99% were not killed, so price of cocoa may increase by small amt but this will not dictate the final price of chocolate.
99% were killed by fungus = 1% were not killed, cocoa prices will increase substantially, but price of other ingredients also can decrease substantially, keeping the rate of chocolate constant.

E Can the fungus be eliminated within the next six months? 
Out of scope.

Devayusssh · Answer

Can you please explain what the question means ? I’ve just started CR and I can’t understand what to do in these questions .please help me

Posted from my mobile device

MuditKapoor · Answer

how can we state this without knowing the proportion of other raw materials and cocoa ?

what if the price decreased is in a small proportion which is overpowered by the increases in price of cocoa!

Though, out of all the options mentioned 'C' can help but a deeper dive to this option makes it irrelevant to the scope and easy to negate.

Rickooreoisb · Answer

A. Has the price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter remained steady during other periods of poor harvest?
What it asks

Past patterns of cocoa prices during poor harvests.

If YES

Prices stayed steady before → maybe they won’t rise now.

If NO

Prices rose before → supports current rise.

Why it’s weak

🚨 Argument already tells us prices have increased now.

Past patterns don’t affect:
👉 whether retail prices will rise in 6 months.

Verdict: Not central → eliminate.

B. Are consumers willing to spend more for chocolate?
What it asks

Demand elasticity.

If YES

Retailers can raise prices → strengthens.

If NO

Retailers may absorb costs → weakens.

Why it’s tempting

Tests ability to pass cost to consumers.

Why it’s not best

Even if consumers resist:

costs still increased

firms often raise prices anyway

demand affects quantity, not necessarily price.

Verdict: Relevant but secondary.

C. Have the prices of other ingredients in chocolate decreased recently?
What it asks

Net production cost change.

Chocolate cost = cocoa + sugar + milk + etc.

If YES

Other costs ↓ → total cost may stay same → price may not rise.

If NO

Total cost ↑ → price rise more likely.

🚨 Directly tests whether retail price pressure exists.

Verdict: BEST evaluate option.

D. What percentage of cacao trees in Brazil were affected by the fungus?
What it asks

Severity of damage.

Why it’s irrelevant

We already know:
👉 harvest was unusually meager
👉 prices increased

Percentage adds no new insight.

Verdict: Irrelevant.

E. Can the fungus be eliminated within the next six months?
What it asks

Future recovery.

Why it’s weak

Even if eliminated:

supply recovery takes time

price increase predicted within 6 months

Does not affect near-term retail pricing.

Verdict: Weak.

Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees

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Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees

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