Several states negotiated a deal with the tobacco industry and State F used some of its money to create a youth-advocacy group. The group's anti smoking advertising campaign was written by teen students. The governor of State F wants to increase funding of this group because he believes only teenagers can persuade other teenagers.
A. comparing the short-term effects of State F’s anti smoking campaign to the project long-term success the campaign will probably enjoy
Though this option is tempting, short-term effects may not really really tell what will happen next. Maybe the campaign was a disaster and it will prevail once the funding is increased or the campaign was successful in short term but on long term the effect may dissipate due to other external factors.
B. breaking down the statistics for the decline of teen smoking into a month-by-month analysis and determining which months saw the steepest decreases
looking at a monthly analysis would only show us what happens on a specific month, but it won't tell anything if increasing the fund on the project is a good idea at all, so no correlation
C. comparing the decline in teen smoking in State F to the decline of teen smoking in other states that received money from the settlement and implemented advertising campaigns written by adults
Correct I didn't fall in love with this option but employing PoE brought me here. Comparing the decline may not necessarily tell anything solid BUT it can help to resolve whether decline in teen smoking is due to the group's effort. Because imagine if all other states had somewhat a similar decline and state F had a plummet in numbers than we may think that this group worked; however, if a contrary situation happens than maybe it may help us to say that this group didn't really work
D. requiring that more adults be hired to supervise the group's finances
Why hire adults? we need to evaluate whether governor's plan is sound. Adding adults in to equation won't do anything
E. comparing the aggregate number of smoking products bought the year before the group was set up to the number of smoking products bought during the year since the group was set up
Ok this may be tempting but note that it says aggregate numbers. Of course a caring governor may want all its citizens to quit smoking BUT we care about teenagers and this very project is specifically dedicated to convince teens to quit smoking. maybe there will be a decline in the numbers but since it is aggregated we will not know whether it is teens or elderly that quit smoking