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23 Dec 2025, 23:11
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Be sure to select an answer first to save it in the Error Log before revealing the correct answer (OA)!
Difficulty:
95%
(hard)
Question Stats:
44% (02:06) correct
56%
(02:29)
wrong
based on 134
sessions
History
Date
Time
Result
Not Attempted Yet
Scientist: Given the human tendency to explore and colonize new areas, some people believe that the galaxy will eventually be colonized by trillions of humans. If so, the vast majority of humans ever to live would be alive during this period of colonization. Since all of us are humans and we have no reason to think we are unrepresentative, the odds are overwhelming that we would be alive during this period, too. But, because we are not alive during this period, the odds are slim that such colonization will ever happen.
The scientist's argument proceeds by
(A) reasoning that because an event has not occurred, that event has a low probability of occurring
(B) drawing a conclusion that implicitly contradicts one of the premises that the argument accepts
(C) taking for granted that dependable predictions about the future cannot ever be made simply on the basis of the present facts
(D) inferring that since an event that is taken to be likely on a given hypothesis has not occurred, the hypothesis is probably false
(E) making a prediction far into the future based on established human tendencies
The scientist's argument proceeds by
(A) reasoning that because an event has not occurred, that event has a low probability of occurring
(B) drawing a conclusion that implicitly contradicts one of the premises that the argument accepts
(C) taking for granted that dependable predictions about the future cannot ever be made simply on the basis of the present facts
(D) inferring that since an event that is taken to be likely on a given hypothesis has not occurred, the hypothesis is probably false
(E) making a prediction far into the future based on established human tendencies
25 Dec 2025, 12:58
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Explanation
Some believe that due to humanity’s tendency to explore, the galaxy will eventually be colonized by trillions of humans. If that happens, the vast majority of humans who ever live would be alive during that colonization period.
We have no reason to think we are special in time, so if colonization will occur, we should probably be alive in that future era rather than now. But we are not alive during that future colonization period. Therefore, it’s unlikely such colonization will ever happen.
(A) is too simplistic and mischaracterizes it. Hence out.
(B) suggests a contradiction in premises, but there’s no explicit contradiction in what the argument accepts.
(C) is wrong because the argument does try to make a prediction about the future based on present facts/probability.
(D) captures it well: If colonization hypothesis were true, then event E (we are alive in colonization era) is likely. E has not occurred (we are not in colonization era). So hypothesis is probably false.
(E) describes making a far future prediction based on human tendencies, but that’s what the believers do, the scientist is rebutting that prediction, not making it.
Answer: D
Some believe that due to humanity’s tendency to explore, the galaxy will eventually be colonized by trillions of humans. If that happens, the vast majority of humans who ever live would be alive during that colonization period.
We have no reason to think we are special in time, so if colonization will occur, we should probably be alive in that future era rather than now. But we are not alive during that future colonization period. Therefore, it’s unlikely such colonization will ever happen.
(A) is too simplistic and mischaracterizes it. Hence out.
(B) suggests a contradiction in premises, but there’s no explicit contradiction in what the argument accepts.
(C) is wrong because the argument does try to make a prediction about the future based on present facts/probability.
(D) captures it well: If colonization hypothesis were true, then event E (we are alive in colonization era) is likely. E has not occurred (we are not in colonization era). So hypothesis is probably false.
(E) describes making a far future prediction based on human tendencies, but that’s what the believers do, the scientist is rebutting that prediction, not making it.
Answer: D
