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Although Stillwater Pond has been polluted by farm runoff for years, several species of fish still live there. The local fishing guide says that “the most populous fish species in the pond is also the one that has adapted best to living in polluted water.” So if, as recent studies suggest, the most populous fish species in the pond is the bullhead catfish, then it must be that the local fishing guide believes that the species of fish in the pond that has adapted best to living in polluted water is the bullhead catfish.

The argument above is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it

The argument moves from what recent studies suggest to what the fishing guide believes. But the guide’s belief depends on what the guide thinks is the most populous species, not on what the studies suggest. The flaw is that the guide may not believe the bullhead catfish is the most populous species.

(A) takes for granted that the local fishing guide believes that Stillwater Pond has been polluted by farm runoff for years

Wrong. The conclusion is about which species the guide believes is best adapted, not whether the guide believes the pond is polluted.

(B) fails to take into account the possibility that the catfish in Stillwater Pond had to adapt very little to survive in polluted water

Wrong. The issue is the guide’s belief, not whether the adaptation was large or small.

(C) fails to take into account the possibility that the recent studies on fish populations in Stillwater Pond are inaccurate

Tempting, but not the main flaw. Even if the studies are accurate, the guide may not know or accept them.

(D) fails to take into account the possibility that the local fishing guide mistakenly believes that some fish species other than the bullhead catfish is the most populous fish species in Stillwater Pond

Correct. The guide says the most populous species is the best adapted. But if the guide believes some other species is most populous, then the guide would believe that other species is best adapted. So the argument cannot infer the guide’s belief from the studies’ claim alone.

(E) takes for granted that Stillwater Pond has only one species of catfish living in it

Wrong. The argument is about bullhead catfish specifically, not about how many catfish species live in the pond.

Answer: (D)
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