Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in B

Question

Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in Brazil, there was an unusually meager harvest of cacao beans this year. The wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future. As a result, the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?

(A) Consumers will purchase other sweets if the price of chocolate increases.

(B) Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus.

(C) Dark and bittersweet varieties of chocolate will be affected more seriously than milk varieties.

(D) The price of chocolate has decreased steadily for three years.

(E) Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.

bipolarbear · Accepted Answer

Remember that when doing weakening questions, 4 of the answer choices WILL NOT WEAKEN the conclusion. 1 answer choice WILL WEAKEN. The reason the question asks which of the following will MOST WEAKEN the argument is because they don't want people to argue that TWO solutions may possibly weaken the conclusion. Hence, only one of the choices WILL WEAKEN the statement. If someone seeks to argue another answer choice, the test makers have covered their bases with the "MOST" word, and say that their answer choice is the one that MOST weakens.

With that in mind, when approaching a weaken question, ALWAYS identify the conclusion, which is "the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months."

Now, out of the following choices, which one will attack this statement? In other words, assuming that the following are true, which will NOT make the retail price of chocolate certain to increase within 6 months?

A) Consumers will purchase other sweets if the price of chocolate increases.
Doesn't really attack the conclusion. The retail price will still increase before consumers purchase other sweets.

B) Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus.
Specifically talking about this year's crops which have already been harvested, so the fungus method would not affect this year's crops.

C) Dark and bittersweet varieties of chocolate will be affected more seriously than milk varieties.
Not relevant as we are not concerned with types of chocolate.

D) The price of chocolate has decreased steadily for three years.
Past years do not affect this year's crops, and we are told that this year there's a harvest shortage.

E) Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.
If MOST chocolate is manufactured from previous cocoa, then this year's crops MAY NOT NECESSARILY increase the price of chocolate. Yes, it is still POSSIBLE that SOME chocolate retail prices will increase, however given that MOST of it will not, this weakens the author's claim that the price of chocolate is CERTAIN to increase in the next 6 months.

I think the key word is CERTAIN, because given that most cocoa beans are taken from a previous crop, it is NOT CERTAIN that the price of chocolate will increase in the next 6 months. This is the only answer choice that casts doubt on the certainty of the price increase is E). Again, we are searching for something that casts doubt on the certainty of the price increase, and the only answer choice that does so is E).

Bunuel · Answer

OFFICIAL EXPLANATION

The conclusion of the argument is that “the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.” This claim is based on the fact that the wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is likely to stay high. The argument assumes that the current retail price of chocolate reflects the current wholesale price of cocoa. The correct answer will weaken the conclusion by contradicting this assumption.

(A) The argument concludes that the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase - what consumers will or will not do in response to the predicted price increase is not relevant.

(B) If researchers have discovered a method to kill the fungus, then the cacao bean crop might recover, although this statement does not provide any indication that that will happen. This statement does not mention anything about when the fungicide method would be implemented, or how long the supposed cacao bean crop recovery would take. Therefore, this statement fails to weaken the conclusion that the retail price will increase within six months.

(C) The argument does not discuss the differences between types of chocolates, so the statement that dark and bittersweet varieties will be more seriously affected than milk varieties is irrelevant.

(D) The price of chocolate in the past is irrelevant to the conclusion about the price of chocolate in the next six months.

(E) CORRECT.  This statement contradicts the assumption that the retail price of chocolate immediately reflects the wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter. If the chocolate currently sold in stores was made from cocoa purchased two years ago, then it may be quite some time before the current wholesale price increase is passed on to retail chocolate consumers.

nishtil · Answer

Please find the analysis of all the options the best answer is E

A) Consumer will purchase other sweets after increase of prices of chocolate hence does not weakens the argument
B) Effective method of killing fungus which is discovered by researcher may be applied now and have impact on cacao prices next year hence does not weakens the argument.
C) Dark and bittersweet chocolate prices will indeed go up.
D) The decrease in chocolate prices in last three years should not weaken the argument
E) Most chocolate in stores are manufactured for cocoa which was purchased two earlier means there is a lead time to two years to affect the prices of chocolate, hence weakens the argument as this year’s cocoa will have effect on chocolate prices after two years

doe007 · Answer

Argument:  The retail price of chocolate is  certain  to increase within  six months

Question:  Which option weakens the argument most seriously?

(A)  Consumers will purchase other sweets if the price of chocolate increases. 
 This option talks about what consumers can do if the price of chocolate increases. There is no information/evidence on whether the price of chocolate will increase. This option does not weaken the argument.

(B)  Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus. 
 The concern is about this year's cacao beans production. Discovery of the effective method to kill the fungus has no effect on this year's production. This option does not weaken the argument.

(C)  Dark and bittersweet varieties of chocolate will be affected more seriously than milk varieties. 
 There is no classification on varieties of chocolate. Concern is on the price of whole chocolate category. This option does not weaken the argument.

(D)  The price of chocolate has decreased steadily for three years. 
 Fungus destroyed the crops this year and so the previous price trend is not applicable on the current new situation. This option does not weaken the argument.

(E)  Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier. 
 This option precisely attacks the  certainty  of price increase within  six months . As the stock of chocolates is 2 years old, it is likely that the stock will mitigate the demand for more than six months and that makes the price increase within six months uncertain.  This option weakens the argument .

Answer is E.

abrakadabra21 · Answer

Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in Brazil, there was an unusually meager harvest of cacao beans this year. The wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future. As a result, the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.

what this ques stem doing is tieing up the retail price of chocolate to cocoa solids and cocoa butter.

It can weaken if :

1> we can change the time frame. so lets say - chocolate in current manufacturing currently using inventory of cocoa solids and cocoa butter, which is self-sufficient for, lets say, 12 month. then no effect on the retail price of chocolate for six months for sure. It might increase, but only after 6 month or 12 month.

2> if we can reduce the proportion of cocoa solids and cocoa butter in choclate and increase of some cheaper raw material instead, overall that set off the price.

what we shoudl not do?

3> we should not say some cure is suddenly got available to kill off fungus because that doesnt help us to adress the current issue. May be in future it will resolve the price increase but not now. "is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future" we should take this seriously.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?

B. Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus.

E. Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.

E is aligned with prethinking 2

CrackverbalGMAT · Answer

Let’s look at the stimulus given

Premises

Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in Brazil, there was an unusually meager harvest of cacao beans this year.
The wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future.

Conclusion/opinion-

As a result,  the retail price of chocolate   is certain to increase within six months.

We need to find an option that weakens the conclusion that the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within the next six months.

(A) Consumers will purchase other sweets if the price of chocolate increases.

The conclusion is that the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase. This is what we have to weaken. Option A talks about what consumers will do if the price of chocolate increases. This does not impact the conclusion at all.  Eliminate .

(B) Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus.

Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus but what about this year’s harvest? The conclusion is based on this year’s harvest.  Eliminate

(C) Dark and bittersweet varieties of chocolate will be affected more seriously than milk varieties.

So? How does this tell us anything about whether there will be a rise in the retail price of chocolate in the next six months?  Eliminate .

(D) The price of chocolate has decreased steadily for three years.

The conclusion is about whether there  will be a rise  in the retail price of chocolate in the next six months. Eliminate.

(E) Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.

Option E tells us that most chocolate in stores is manufactured from  cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.  If that’s the case, the meager harvest of cacao beans this year will not have a huge impact on the retail price for chocolates in the next six months.
Option E weakens the conclusion and is  correct .

Vishnupriya
GMAT Verbal SME

Arunava7393 · Answer

Good question. Timeline based

Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in B

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Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in B

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