Like most people I
solved this question using the combinatorial approach (calculating how many option are desirable devided by how many options there)
=(4C1*6C1)/8C3 = 4*6/56 =3/7
BUT there is also a second approach (the probability approach). In this approach you calculate how likely it is to make each choice. In this case this approach is a bit more difficult but generally I find this approach (at least in easy question) more intuitive.
We are picking 3 of 8 and we want to know what the probability is that we pick a two diagonals points and one other point. In other words the likelyhood of picking a pair and any other point and there are 4 pairs.
There are
three orders inwhich ways we can pick a pair/the points of the diagonals in this case:
X1 & X2 representing the pair. Y representing any of the other 6 points)
1. X1 , X2, Y (first we pick the pair (X1 & X2) then any other of the 6 remaining points)
2. X1 , Y , X2 (first we pick one point of the pair (X1) then any other point (Y) and then we pick the second point of the pair (X2)
3. Y , X1, X2 (first we pick any of the 8 points (Y) and then we pick the pair (X1 & X2)
The
likelyhood of each of the three possible orders is the following:
1. Choosing X1 first has a likelyhood of 1/8 we need to multiply this times the likelyhood of choosing X2 which is 1/7 and multiply this times the likelyhood of choosing any of the remaining numbers (likelyhood of Y) 6/6. The results is the likelyhood of choosing X1 first and X2 second (and Y third) but of course X1 and X2 could switch their order. Therefore we need to multiply the result times 2 and since there are four other pairs beside X1&X2 for which the likelyhood is the same we should multiply the result again times 4.
P1= 1/8 * 1/7 * 6/6 * 2 * 4 = 8/56 =
1/72. Choosing X1 first has a likelyhood of 1/8 we need to multiply this times the likelyhood of choosing Y second ,which is 6/7 and multiply this times the likelyhood of choosing X2 third, which has a likelyhood of 1/6.
The results is the likelyhood of choosing X1 first and X2 third but of course X1 and X2 could switch their order. Therefore we need to multiply the result times 2 and since there are four other pairs beside X1&X2 for which the likelyhood is the same we should multiply the result again times 4.
P2= 1/8 * 6/7 * 1/6 * 2 * 4 =
1/73.Choosing Y first has a likelyhood of 6/8 we need to multiply this times the likelyhood of choosing X1 second ,which is 1/7 and multiply this times the likelyhood of choosing X2 third, which has a likelyhood of 1/6.
The results is the likelyhood of choosing Y first and X1 second and X2 third but of course X1 and X2 could switch their order. Therefore we need to multiply the result times 2 and since there are four other pairs beside X1&X2 for which the likelyhood is the same we should multiply the result again times 4.
P3= 6/8 * 1/7 * 1/6 * 2 * 4 =
1/7Adding the probabilites of the three probabilities we get the probability of Ptotal=1/7 + 1/7 + 1/7 = 3* 1/7 =
3/7