The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper: “In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.” Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
The argument opines that residents of San Perdito would have be better served, if they had voted Montoya out of office and re-elected Varro as mayor of San Perdito. Author based its conclusion on the comparison of unemployment rate along with population change during the tenures of Montoya and Varro, who held the office before Montoya. This line of reasoning for author's conclusion is flawed for several reasons.
First, argument fails to take into consideration other key economic indicators, such as minimum wages, GDP, inflation, etc., that may be required to evaluate the soundness of economy during any period in addition to unemployment rate. Argument overlooked that economic conditions are determined by complex interplay of various key indicators and based its conclusion on one single indicator i.e unemployment rate. Furthermore, argument does not provide any reason for low unemployment rate during the tenure of Varro. It is likely that unemployment rate was low during that time because of surplus availability of labours, which in turn is a result of increased population. If this holds true, then residents of San Perdito during Varro's tenure, though employed, may not be as happy as or as prosperous as they were during the time when Montoya was in office, and thus, they are better off without Varro.
Second, in stating that two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened when Montoya served as mayor of the city, argument ignores the fact that present consequences can be result of past actions. For instance, businesses that were closed during Montoya's time either would have predestined to die even if Varro had been in office or could have closed due to economic reforms brought in by Varro's economic policy. Moreover, argument sheds no light on businesses closed when Varro served as mayor. Hence, with the information provided in the argument, it is difficult to say under whom would be the residents of San Perdito best served.
Third, argument fails to put the argument in the context of global economy. There is a possibility that when Montoya was elected as mayor, the global economy was going through a financial crisis such as subprime mortgage crisis, great depression, etc., and global economy downtrend could explain the economic condition of San Perdito. In such scenario, comparing the economic conditions during Montoya's time with those during Varro's time becomes pointless, and the argument's conclusion no longer holds.
For these reasons, argument fails to make a convincing case for its conclusion. Had the argument provided relevant details regarding the points enumerated above, it would have been easier to evaluate it.